2014 may feature top pitching

Although the 2013 starting rotation is far from settled, the Twins appear to have a nice core of talented arms that could be a force in 2014 and beyond.

By trading for Alex Meyer, 22, the Twins find themselves with a possible top-of-the-rotation power pitcher within the near future. Kyle Gibson, 25, and Liam Hendriks, 23, should have the talent to compete in 2013, and project as solid mid-rotation starters. Scott Diamond, 26, already has one good major league season under his belt, and the Twins would be delighted if he can at least maintain his rookie-year performance.

That is a solid core four, perhaps not ready to peek in 2013, but very close. Pedro Henandez, 23, is another young left-handed pitcher that should be able to mature into at least a formidable #4 starter, as well as Cole DeVries, 27, who pitched well in 2012 and would make a respectable back-end starter.

This seems similar to the last wave of Twins starters, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano. Although they all ended their Twins ten-years on rocky notes, it was a solid core 2008-2010, decent enough to compete for the playoffs.

Certainly the Twins hope for more out of this group than the previous class, but what can’t be understated is that these young pitchers are all developing at relatively the same time, and should peek together at the right time.

Looking ahead to 2013, it’s expected that the Twins will sign at least one decent starter to a semi-long term contract, with possibly one or even two additional starters for one-year deals. Given the potential for a starting pitching boon in 2014, don’t look for the Twins to sign more than one starter to a long-term deal. Right now, they essentially need a few stopgaps while Meyer, Gibson and Henandez can develop more thoroughly. 

Currently, the 2013 rotation looks like this:

1.) Scott Diamond

2.) Liam Hendriks

3.) Cole DeVries

4.) Sam Deduno

5.) PJ Walters

Alt: Nick Blackburn

Ideally, Sam Deduno, PJ Walters and Nick Blackburn would be used more as spot starters to protect younger or injured pitchers,  pitching in AAA if the team can sign or trade for at least two new starters.

Span traded for top prospect

Twins General Manager, Terry Ryan, has never been one to follow convention. 

Denard Span has been available and rumored to be traded for the past two seasons, but Ryan knew he had a solid everyday player and former 1st round draft pick, a player under a very club-friendly contract that deserved a good return. Additionally, a full season of good health eliminated any concerns that Span may experience concussion-like symptoms that plagued him during 2011, which previously hampered his trade value.

After all this waiting and speculating, it was finally the moment when Denard Span’s value was at it’s absolute peak. Center field has arguably been the position in most high demand this offseason, with the Phillies, Nationals, Braves, Rays and Giants all looking to sign a veteran center fielder and leadoff hitter. As fate would have it, these five teams arguably have the deepest starting pitching depth in baseball, well documented as the Twins most glaring need. 

The center field market had been waiting on top free agent, BJ Upton, who finally signed a 5-year, $75.25 million deal with the Braves. That left the Phillies, Nationals, Rays and Giants to all compete for the likes of former Giants center fielder, Angel Pagan, 32, whom is likely to be overpaid generously. The timing also comes just before the Winter Meetings, when many teams may solve center field problems, thus decreasing Span’s competitive value.

On paper, Pagan and Span’s statistical value is nearly identical. 

Span:: .284 average, .357 OBP, 90 stolen bases, 2354 career at-bats. 

Pagan:: .281 average, .333 OBP, 124 stolen bases, 2414 career at-bats

The main difference, however, is that Span is four years younger and under a contract that should pay him approximately half of Pagan’s projected salary over the next three seasons. Assuming all options are picked up, Span will earn $20.25 million over the next three seasons. Pagan is rumored to be seeking at least a three-year deal worth in the range of $30-40 million.

That means that any team interested in Pagan could get a younger player in Span for a savings of at least $10-20 million. Yes, it would seem the Twins had a very nice bargaining chip.

Popular convention would have the Twins trading for one of at least six solid major-league ready starting pitchers on the Nationals or Rays roster. That’s right, each team has at least six pitchers that would easily crack the top-3 on the Twins staff.

Terry Ryan, however, has never been one to play by popular convention. Rather than picking a more experienced pitcher, he focused on pure talent, and sneakily acquired Alex Meyer, the 23rd overall draft pick in 2011. Meyer has only one season of minor league experience, but is a soon-to-be 23-year-old who stands at 6’9”, dominated in college and has drawn comparisons to Justin Verlander. With a fastball clocked at 99 miles per hour and a nasty knuckle-curve, Meyer now has perhaps the best stuff in the Twins organization.

Although it seems likely he will start in AA New Britain, Ryan coyly hinted that Meyer will be given a shot to crack to major-league rotation sooner rather than later.

“I'll let him dictate where he's going to end up in which spot in the rotation and all that. But he's certainly has the capability of providing some quality innings." Ryan was quoted, indicating that there may be little hesitation if he is one of their top 5 starting options.

"Every club in the game wants pitching of this nature. He's got stuff, and he throws it over."

Trading for a young power pitcher is certainly risky, as most tend to suffer Tommy John surgery or something similar early in their careers. But certainly the Twins will be careful with him, and they may have landed a possible top pitcher for many years to come.

Twins to rebuild, starting with coaching

After two 90+ lose seasons, the Twins made one of there boldest coaching shakeups in recent team history by dismissing Bullpen Coach, Rick Stelmaszek, First Base Coach, Jerry White, and Third Base Coach, Steve Liddle.

Additionally, the team reassigned former Hitting Coach, Joe Vavra, to 3rd Base/Infield Coach and former Bench Coach, Scott Ullger, to 1st Base/Outfield Coach. Manager, Ron Gardenhire, and Pitching Coach, Rick Anderson, were the only two coaches to remain in their former capacity, while Terry Ryan officially became the permanent General Manager after serving as “Interim” during 2012.

The new coaching staff shakes up like this:

Manager: Ron Gardenhire

Hitting Coach: Tom Brunansky

Bench Coach/Catching Instructor: Terry Steinbach

1st Base Coach/Outfield Instructor: Scott Ullger

3rd Base Coach/Infield Instructor: Joe Vavra

Pitching Coach: Rick Anderson

Bullpen Coach: Bobby Cuellar

The coaching shake-up marks a distinct shift in approach by the Twins organization, which has struggled by maintaining a Metrodome-style team in a vastly different new ballpark. Both Brunansky and Steinbach are former Twins known for their right-handed pull hitting during their playing days. Both are former All-Stars and World Series winners.

Varva and the rest of the former staff had preached hitting to all fields and keeping the ball out of the air, which had worked well on the fast artificial turf of the Metrodome. Target Field has proved to be a much slower infield, and the team will need to adjust by hitting the ball more in the air, and perhaps, out of the fences.

Former coaches, Steve Liddle and Jerry White, were very good people and well respected within the organization. However, fundamentals had shown little improvement over the past few years, and neither had World Series experience or a winning “swagger” that is needed within a clubhouse. Most likely, both will at least be offered minor league coaching jobs within the organization.

Rick Stelmaszek was the longest tenyeared coach in team history, at 32 years, and the team had hoped he would retire gracefully. He had been kept on as a mascot of sorts, well liked and very knowledgeable of Twins history. Unfortunately, poor health and age had somewhat limited his abilities, and Rick Anderson simply needed more able help.

Bobby Cuellar was likely on the verge of landing a big league job elsewhere, after patching together a remarkable pitching staff at AAA Rochester. As the big league pitching staff imploded, Cuellar was the season’s unsung hero, by constantly sending up retread pitchers who had surprising success.

Scott Diamond, Cole De Vries, Samuel Deduno and PJ Walters all had career years under Cuellar’s watch, all serving admirably when sent up to the big leagues. Liam Hendricks, Nick Blackburn and others also pitched extremely well while in AAA.

While the team struggled on the field, Ron Gardenhire remained sound in his decision making, and the team made the right move to keep both he and Rich Anderson.

These coaching decisions were not easy to make, but significantly beefs up the staff while retaining enough familiar faces to maintain a sense of continuity with the players. It should be the first step in changing the approach of a stumbling franchise.