Harden could be secret weapon

The Twins have signed right-handed pitcher, Rich Harden, 31, to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Harden is the classic story of a good stuff pitcher who has struggled with arm injuries throughout his career, but dominated at times when healthy.

Although the Twins have added three new starting pitchers this offseason, none are top-of-the-rotation worthy. So while the Twins are not counting on him or expecting a lot out of the signing, he certainly has the ability to lead the staff if he proves his injuries are behind him. The team could also potentially convert him into a reliever as an effort to keep him healthy.

The good news here is that at age 31, Harden is actually entering his pitching “prime,” although he hasn’t made it through a full season since 2004, at the age of 22.

Over 928.1 major league innings, Harden has only allowed 781 hits and recorded 949 strikeouts with a remarkable .228 opponents’ batting average. His best season was 2008, when he was 10-2 with a 2.07 ERA in 25 starts.

The Twins have had good luck and bad with these types of signings. The bad occurred last year when Joel Zumyaya was injured for the whole season without even throwing a single pitch in a spring training game. The good also came, as Jared Burton had his first healthy season in two years, and emerged as one of the best setup man in the game.

The Twins have been buying low all offseason, by primarily acquiring pitchers who are coming off injuries or off seasons. At some point, they are bound to catch lighting in a bottle.

Underrated Pelfrey pads rotation

The Twins reportedly added their third new starter from the National League, in sinkerball righthander, Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey, 28, has been the Mets’ unsung hero over the past half decade, providing over 30 starts each year from 2008-2011, before undergoing  Tommy John surgery early last season.

The former 1st round pick is not overpowering, but has an impressive career ratio of one home run per 12.8 innings, along with a respectable 1.26 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning).

Twins General Manager, Terry Ryan, has put great efforts into acquiring players that can thrive at Target Field, a ballpark that theoretically plays well to righthanded sinkerball pitchers that can limit fly balls going to left field. 

In 2012, the Twins were tied with the Colorado Rockies for the second most home runs allowed in Major League Baseball, with a ratio of one home run per 7.3 innings. Most of the homers were hit to left field, as Target Field is said to favor right-hander hitters. Left field also happens to be the position of Josh Willingham, the Twins’ poorest defensive player.

Terry Ryan has also preached the need to add “numbers” in regards to starting pitchers, and Pelfrey comes at a fairly low-risk gamble at a one-year $4 million contract with a possible $1.5 million in incentives. Although he had Tommy John surgery last May, and will be watched carefully, the Twins now appear to have some depth to allow him to return to form. Although not unreasonable, the contract is likely $1-2 million more than he was offered by other teams, and the Twins’ financial flexibility played a huge role in the signing.

It’s interesting to note that all three new pitchers, Pelfrey, Vance Worley and Kevin Correia, are sinkerball righthanders that have spent their entire careers in the National League. Typically pitchers have an advantage when facing hitters for the first time, so hopefully this will benefit the new trio of pitchers.

Correia signs, adds rotation depth

The Twins finally landed a free agent starting pitcher, as right-hander, Kevin Correia, 32, pulled the trigger and signed a two-year, $10 million contract. The signing is fair and reasonable on both ends, and perhaps at the low end of what he was predicted to sign for at this point in the offseason. Once again, the Twins find themselves scooping up a wayward Pirate, reuniting him for former catcher, Ryan Doumit, along with a growing list that includes bullpen hopeful, Tim Wood.

For the Twins, it provides them with a veteran ground-ball pitcher that can admirably serve as a #4 or #5 starter, and also has had career success in the bullpen. On the surface, he seems a bit like Kevin Slowey before he turned sour, only with much more adaptability. With the Pirates over the past two seasons, he averaged two fewer strikeouts and one fewer walk per 9 innings, as compared to 2009-10 with the Padres. His overall effectiveness appears consistent of those four years, as a .500 pitcher with around a 4.50 ERA; in essence, the definition of “average” by Major League standards.

This sudden change in strikeouts/walks could be a sign of diminished stuff and added savvy, or perhaps due to a change in coaching philosophy between the two teams. At 32, he should still be at a physical prime, and although the switch to the American League can be somewhat dubious for pitchers, he should also have a better offense behind him than he saw in Pittsburgh or San Diego.

The Twins may have preferred Brandon McCarthy, who signed with the Diamondbacks for two years at $15.5 million, but Correia again comes at a very fair price and likely signed with the Twins because he wanted the opportunity to be a leader. The Twins were also wanting a two-year man, while other teams may have been more likely to offer only one season.

Now, with Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Correia, the Twins only have two rotation more spots to fill. Agents for second-tier pitchers such as Mike Pelfrey, John Lannon, Carlos Villaneva and others may be dismayed to see potentially lucrative Twins' offers dwindle down to one-year or spring training invitee status.

With a large crop of pitchers including Liam Henriks, Cole DeVries, Kyle Gibson, Nick Blackburn, Sam Deduno and PJ Walters all competing for roster spots, don’t expect the Twins to sign another starting pitcher to a long-term deal unless they ante up for Anibal Sanchez, Shaun Marcum or a potential ace. If the Twins are to sign another starter for guaranteed money, it will likely be a one-year gig with perhaps a club option. Joe Saunders would seem the be the best fit, although Brett Myers’ versatility and Francisco Liriano’s occasional dominance could entice the Twins as well.

At this point, Correia serves the role of the back-end rotation veteran, and it wouldn't seem necessary to sign another similar pitcher unless it was on the bargain rack. What the Twins need is an ace, and they have money to spend.

Likely free agent options

Looking into a crystal ball, the Twins have $30 million to spend in 2013, and will have Justin Morneau’s $14 million come off the books in 2014. Aside from relievers, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, they don’t have any other players expecting big pay raises in 2014. 

That means, for the immediate future, there is rare money to spend in Minnesota.

Although top starting pitcher, Zack Greinke, is likely too risky and overpriced for the Twins, I would bet that the team has at least made him an offer worth considering. The Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Royals are all in a bidding war for his services, but if the introverted Greinke wanted a smaller-profile team, the Twins would likely offer the best contract amongst other low-market suitors, such as the Royals.

Look for Greinke to sign a 5-year contract for between $100-125 million. The Twins may consider a 4-year contract at around $70 million, to put things in perspective. If Josh Hamilton signs with the Rangers and Greinke doesn’t want to pitch in Los Angeles.. there’s a slim chance the Twins may have a chance. Albeit, very slim.

Twins fans should rejoice knowing that Joe Blanton has signed with the Angels, which means the Angels may drop out of the starting pitching market. It also means that the Twins won’t sign Blanton, who is very much on the Jason Marquis level and wouldn’t be a huge upgrade to the staff.

Back to the crystal ball, look for the Twins to sign at least one of the following:

1.) Anibal Sanchez, 3 years, $33-36 million

2.) Edwin Jackson, 2 years, $20-28 million

3.) Ryan Dempster, 1 year, $8-13 million (with similar club option)

4.) Carlos Villanueva, 2 years, $8-12 million

5.) John Lannon, 2 years, $6-10 million

6.) Kevin Correia, 2 years, $10-16 million

7.) Joe Saunders, 1-2 years, $8-22 million

8.) Francisco Liriano, 1 year, $8-11 million (with $12 million club option)

9.) Brett Myers, 2 years, $16-22 million

10.) Brandon McCarthy, 2-3 years, $15-30 million

Given the fact that the Twins are more realistically hoping to compete for the division and a playoff birth in 2014, look for them to sign any quality pitcher to at least a two-year contract. They certainly may go bargain shopping for an older veteran on a one-year deal, but that type of signing would typically be closer to spring training. 

Whomever they sign will likely depend more on the player than the team. The player will be someone who wants a guaranteed starting spot, with a chance to be ace of the staff. This comes in contrast to being in the back end of the rotation with a team that had more success in 2012.

Revere traded for more young pitching

While Denard Span’s trade was almost a foregone conclusion, the Twins pulled off a bit of a shocker by trading former 1st round pick, Ben Revere, to the Philladephia Phillies for right-handed starting pitcher, Vance Worley, and top minor league pitching prospect, Trevor May.

The Twins have stockpiled such tremendous center field depth over the years, that it almost seems like they were starving the rest of the big leagues until the moment was right to unload some assets and replenish the system.

Ben Revere had been blocked for years by Span, and it was widely assumed he would finally take over in center field this season. Instead, the Twins sent him to the Phillies for a take arguably much greater than what they got for Span. But perhaps Revere was the top trade chip all along, with a young player’s contract still under $1 million per season, highlight-reel defense, and a .294 batting average and 40 stolen bases in 2012.

Now, with both Span and Revere gone, they team may somewhat prematurely turn the reins over to yet another former 1st round, Aaron Hicks. Hicks is an outstanding defensive player, compared to Torii Hunter but with a better arm. His offense is also thought to be comparable, as a guy that could possibly hit 20-25 home runs in the future, as well as stealing 20-30 bases per season. His problem has been strikeouts and plate discipline, with at least 110 strikeouts in each of the past three minor league seasons.

Hicks has yet to play above AA, and the Twins typically don’t promote a prospect without at least some time and success in AAA. To help bridge the gap, the Twins also have Darin Mastroianni, who was unassumingly one of the team’s best acquisitions in 2012. Mastroianni can play good defense in center, and is very similar to Reverve in terms of stolen bases and on-base percentage. In only 77 games last season, he stole 21 bases and was only caught three times. At one point, he stole a whopping 70 bases in the minor leagues, and plays an aggressive Twins-style of baseball.

Adding to the outfield depth is Joe Benson, who was a top outfield prospect until floundering in 2012. Before this past season, he hit .285 with 16 home runs in AA, and is still considered a prospect who could turn things around in 2013. Although projected more as a right fielder, he has the athleticism to play center if all else fails.

As shocking as it may seem that the Twins gave up a young talent like Revere, his value may have been at its ceiling given the current scramble for center fielders around major league baseball. The Phillies had missed out on several overpriced free-agent options, and Revere fit in perfectly while giving them some unexpected payroll flexibility.

This deal would not have been made if the Phillies weren’t willing to part with top pitching, and they did just that. Vance Worley had an ok season in 2012 while battling injuries, but was lights-out during his rookie season in 2011, with a 11-3 record and 3.01 ERA in 21 starts. He’s a solid, young starter that is now arguably the Twins top big league starter coming into 2013.

Additionally, the Phillies gave up right hander starter, Trevor May, who has been consistently ranked as the Phillies #1 or 2 prospect over the past two seasons. May hasn’t yet pitched above AA, and has battled control issues, but has a stellar 647 strikeouts and .226 opponents batting average over 525.1 minor league innings. If he can better harness his control, May projects to be a true top-of-the-rotation power arm.

So suddenly, over the course of a week, the Twins has injected a shot of top-talent pitching that should give them a chance in 2013-14. Now, with around $30 million in payroll flexibility, the team will be looking more short-term and immediate to compete in 2013.