Twins staff hope to change culture

The Twins are know for loyalty and stability in upper management, but needed to make a change after four dismal seasons sent the team to rock bottom in 2014.

Ron Gardenhire and his staff did a remarkable job throughout the 2000’s, lead by a group of scrappy coaches who never made major marks in the big leagues. Gardenhire was a marginal utility infielder in the big leagues, and preferred to hire journeymen coaches who paid their dues in the minor leagues. The philosophy seems to work for many years, although Gardenhire’s teams always seemed to collapse in the spotlight, with a 6-21 playoff record.

After Terry Ryan came back as General Manager, he realized the need for coaches who had success under major league lights. He first pushed to hire Tom Brunansky as hitting coach, and later Terry Steinback and Paul Molitor as coaches.

Molitor had been Gardenhire’s competition for the manger’s post when Tom Kelly retired in 2001, and the two had always been seen as opposites: Garenhire, the jovial underdog, and Molitor, the stoic Hall-of-Famer. It was curious that Molitor spent a decade as a roving minor league instructor, constantly being passed up for Garenhire’s staff.

Once Molitor was hired as bench coach in 2014, his presence vastly overshadowed Gardenhire. While he kept a quiet, low-profile, the 3000-hit-man simply could not help but look like a leader on the bench. He was overqualified for the role, and exuded respect, while Gardenhire was more of a player’s coach, who might not have always been comfortable pushing players with a stronger playing resume than he.

Rick Anderson also did a remarkable job as pitching coach, turning Johan Santana into a Cy Young pitcher, and resurrecting the career of Phil Hughes. However, he had trouble getting the most out of most veteran pitchers, and his philosophy was mostly geared towards marginal results, pitching to contact and letting the chips fall where they may. Professional teams like the Yankees pounded the Twins when it mattered most, knocking those strikes over the fence in key situations.

Anderson also lacked big league playing experience, and may not have been properly suited to guide a pitcher through a “big game,” or pulling a veteran out of the gutter when their command falters.

Garenhire, Anderson and company were good coaches but after four years of losing, had nothing left to give. The Twins needed to make changes, and insert proven winners who had been in key situations, and succeeded against the best.

Paul Molitor hit .368 in 132 playoff at-bats, including .418 in the World Series. He dealt with injuries and addiction during his career, but persevered and always rose to the occasion in the spotlight. He will not be intimidated by the Yankees, and is the perfect person to calmly guide a team through big games, while being able to effectively push veterans who falter or fail to produce. 

The Twins also surprised many by hiring former Yankees closer, Neil Allen, who also dealt with addiction and turmoil during his career. Known for his positive energy and innovation, Allen thrived under pressure as a pitcher with unconventional savvy and heart on the mound. Combined with former Twins’ closer, Eddie Guardado, the Twins suddenly has piching leadership that has veteran, high-pressure experience and a flare for underdog tenacity.

To add depth to the bunch, the Twins’ added popular AAA manager, Gene Glenn, an experienced minor league manager and long-time Major League coach. Glenn knows most of the Twins young players, and can advise Molitor on how to handle the rigors of coaching.

Butch Davis was hired from the Orioles' organization, and is known for positive energy and heart as a player and low-level minor league coach. Like Allen, he had been constantly looked over for promotions, but kept coaching out of love and respect for the game.

Rudy Henandez was perhaps the most surprising addition to the safe as assistant hitting coach, having spend over a decade as a low-level hitting coach in the Twins system. He is known as a good baseball man who can relate to young Latin players. 

Lastly, the Twins retained longtime coach, Joe Vavra, from the Garenhire regime, to bridge the gap on Molitor’s bench. Vavra knows day-to-day operations and knows how to play the supporting role on a manager’s bench.

Terry Ryan is known as a great evaluator of talent, and it seems he has put this skill to use in constructing an interesting staff, individually crafted to guide the current Twins’ roster.

Twins hope Morales pulls an Orland Cabrera

While it’s rare for the Twins to make a major mid-season acquisition, the recent signing of 30-year-old slugger, Kendrys Morales, gives Twins fans hope that his bat and veteran leadership can spark the team in a similar way that Orlando Cabrera did in 2009.

Regarded as one of the better offensive teams in Twins history, 2009 featured career-years by Joe Mauer (.365 BA, 523 at-bats) and many Twins, although they struggled up the middle with sub-par seasons by SS Nick Punto (.228 BA, 359 at-bats) and 2B Alexi Castilla (.202 BA in 228 at-bats).

On July 31, 2009, the Twins acquired the 34-year-old Cabrera from the Oakland A’s for a lower-level minor league prospect. The team was 52-51, and in third place in the AL Central, two games behind the Detroit Tigers. After the trade, the team improved to 35-25 down the stretch, edging the Tigers for the AL Central at the end of the year.

Individually, Cabrera hit .289 with 5 home runs and 36 RBIs in 242 at-bats. Solid yet unspectacular numbers, while his leadership and energy down the stretch may have been more of a boost than the numbers themselves.

While the 2014 Twins aren’t quite as strong as 2009, they are still hovering around a .500 record and only 3.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers. Morales is also a much more potent offensive threat than Cabrara was, and there are nearly 100 more games to play. 

Morales has a 162-game average of 27 home runs, 90 RBI and .281 BA.

If the current Twins team can improve down the stretch in a similar way as the 2014 team, there may be an outside shot that postseason baseball returns to Minnesota.

Twins backlogged with pitchers

After two years of stockpilling pitching depth, the Twins face an usual position of having a talented array of AAA and AA pitchers roadblocked by mediocre, yet durable, veterans at the big league league.

The Rochester Red Wings lead the AAA International League with a staggering 3.12 ERA and a league-low 360 hits in 412.2 innings pitched. Former Twins’ ace, Scott Diamond, owns the only ERA over 4.00, pitching to a 6.70 ERA due to a rough start.

Scanning through the Red Wings’ starting staff and bullpen, it could be argued that any pitcher on the team could compete respectably at the big league level. 

Alex Meyer and Trevor May are righthanded power pitchers matching wits, with almost identical stats to start the season. Meyer has a 3.55 ERA over 45.2 innings, 37 hits and 54 strikeouts. May has a 3.00 ERA in 48 innings, 35 hits and 50 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, lefthanders, Kris Johnson and Logan Darnell, consistently throw in the low-90s, which is great for southpaws. They are striking out almost as many batters as Meyer/May with even better overall results. Johnson has a 2.11 ERA over 47 innings, 38 hits and 45 strikeouts. Remarkable, swingman righthander, Yohan Pino, sports the teams' best ERA at 1.42 over 38 innings, 24 hits and 38 strikeouts, including two shutouts.

A solid case could be made that a rotation of Meyer, May, Johnson, Darnell and Pino could produce better major league numbers than the Twins’ current veteran staff. At the very least, it could be very competitive. 

Currently, the Red Wings’ staff is so solid that Sean Gilmartin, Pat Dean and Virgil Vasquez, who have all seen some success at AAA, are stashed away at AA New Britain, and Mike Pelfrey is currently in a DL limbo, without a spot for him in the majors or even AAA.

Pelfrey posted a 7.99 ERA over five starts, and was put on the DL in order to regain his velocity. However, Sam Deduno, his replacement, has pitched his way into the rotation to stay, with a 3.48 ERA in 41.1 innings. Pelfrey is in the first year of a 2-year, $11 million contract, so it is highly unlikely that he would be released, and he hasn’t thrown well enough to be traded.

Of the Twins' starting five, only Kevin Correia is not be under team control in 2015, and he also sports the league’s worst ERA for a starter at 6.34 over ten starts and 55.1 innings. Historically, the Twins have given veterans about ten starts before a possible release, but Corriea was the Twins top starter in 2013, and has a respectable track record and durability.

It would normally make sense to send Correia or Pelfrey to the bullpen, but there isn’t really a spot there either. Jared Burton has a 6.20 ERA in 20.1 innings, but has a solid track record. Matt Guerrier might be the bullpen’s weakest link, but again is a veteran with a track record. None of these pitchers would draw any value through trade.

Something has to give, and the Twins may listen to trades if teams come calling. With a deep bullpen in AAA, the team may trade a setup man like Brian Duensing, Casey Fien, Jared Burton, or long reliever, Anthony Swarzak. All are valued relievers, but these four may be the only veteran pitchers with trade value. This would than allow one of the team's lesser starters to move into long relief, and open the door for at least one of Rochesters' overpowering starts to enter the rotation.

Twins opening day surprises

In January, I posted a long-range prediction for the next four Twins’ seasons. The 2014 predicted Opening Day roster was fairly similar, with a few noted exeptions:

1.) Alex Presley claimed off waivers from the Astros.

While Presley’s spring training was not what anyone would have hoped, batting .189 with no extra base hits and one stolen base in four attempts, he has a career .292 minor league average and was one of the team’s only lead-off and backup outfield options. It’s a sure indiction of his talent that the Astros, the first team in the waiver-wire line, dropped a pitcher to adapt their roster for Presley.

2.) Chris Parmelee and Scott Diamond pass through waivers

All winter the Twins were sweating the possibility of losing several “talented” players that were out-of-options. Thus, it’s a telling sign that Diamond, a 27-year-old lefthander that entered the 2013 season as the projected staff “Ace,” and Parmelee, a former 1^st round draft pick and opening day starter in 2012 and 2013, both slipped through waivers by all major league teams.

3.) Jason Bartlett makes the 25-man roster

Picking the 34-year-old Bartlett over Presley was definitely the surprise of the spring, especially as Bartlett could be sent to the minor leagues without any penalty. Apparently, the Twins feel that the former starting shortstop has the athletic ability to play all positions, and that he can add some needed life and winning attitude to the clubhouse.

Don’t be surprised, however, to see natural outfielder and leadoff-man, Darin Mastroianni, called up from AAA at some point if Bartlett falters. Another interesting option could be catcher/outfielder, Chris Hermann, who would give the Twins the option to DH the bat of catcher Josmil Pinto.

4.) Kyle Gibson as #5 starter

Gibson earned the job in spring training, with a 2.20 ERA in 16.1 innings. It’s only a surprise in that the Twins risked losing Vance Worley and Scott Diamond, although it became apparent that Gibson deserved the spot. Sam Deduno will also transition to the bullpen, after a stellar spring ERA of 1.76 with 17 strikeouts in 16.1 innings.

Given his potential, Gibson could emerge as a solid #3 starter or better as the season progresses. His sinker looked filthy this spring, according to reports.

Starting Lineup: four year prediction w/stats

2014

1.) CF Alex Presley, 28, left, .275, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 25 SB

2.) 2B Brian Dozier, 26, right, .260, 16 HR, 66 RBI, 18 SB

3.) 1B Joe Mauer, 30, left, .310, 16 HR, 82 RBI, 9 SB

4.) DH Josh Willingham, 35, right , .235, 24 HR, 79 RBI, 0 SB

5.) LF Oswaldo Arcia, 22, left, .260, 26 HR, 80 RBI, 5 SB

6.) 3B Trevor Plouffe, 27, right, .270, 18 HR, 65 RBI

7.) RF Jason Kubel, 31, left, .250, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB

8.) C Kurt Suzuki, 30, right, .240, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 0 SB

9.) SS Pedro Florimon, 27, switch, .255, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 12 SB

Prediction: Expect a power surge from Oswaldo Arcia, and battle between Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello and Jason Kubel in right field. Aaron Hicks will rebound, having a respectable AAA season and returning to the Twins later in the year.

2015

1.) CF Byron Buxton, 21, right, .270, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 40 SB

2.) 2B Brian Dozier, 27, right, .280, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 18 SB

3.) 1B Joe Mauer, 31, left, .330, 15 HR, 90 RBI, 9 SB

4.) 3B Miguel Sano, 21, right, .240, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 0 SB

5.) LF Oswaldo Arcia, 23, left, .285, 28 HR, 78 RBI, 0 SB

6.) DH Chris Colabello, 31, right, .270, 21 HR, 74 RBI

7.) C Josmil Pinto, 24, right, .280, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 0 SB

8.) RF Aaron Hicks, 24, right, .250, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 22 SB

9) SS Danny Santana, 24, switch, .265, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 18 SB

Prediction: Top prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano bring life and excitement to the lineup. Danny Santana could nudge Florimon out of the shortstop position. Speed and power numbers begin to spike, while a speedy outfield lowers team ERA.

2016

1.) CF Byron Buxton, 22, right, .305, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 55 SB

2.) RF Aaron Hicks, 25, right, .270, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 23 SB

3.) 1B Joe Mauer, 32, left, .290, 18 HR, 90 RBI, 6 SB

4.) 3B Miguel Sano, 22, right, .265, 35 HR, 105 RBI

5.) LF Oswaldo Arcia, 24, left, .270, 30 HR, 95 RBI

6.) DH Kennys Vargas, 25, switch, .272, 18 HR, 72 RBI

7.) C Josmil Pino, 25, right, .290,15 HR, 65 RBI, O SB

8.) 2B Brian Dozier, 28, right, .280, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 12 SB

9) SS Danny Santana, 25, switch, .270, 4 HR, 40 RBI, 17 SB

Prediction: The Twins could have the best young offense in baseball, with only Mauer over 30. Kennys Vargas emerges as another power hitter on a low-payroll but extremely talented team. Twins could have a full lineup hitting above .250.

2017

1.) CF Byron Buxton, 23, right, .315, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 60 SB

2.) RF Aaron Hicks, 26, right, .284, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 32 SB

3.) 1B Joe Mauer, 33, left, .315, 12 HR, 95 RBI, 6 SB

4.) 3B, Miguel Sano, 23, right, .280, 40 HR, 110 RBI

5.) LF, Oswaldo Arcia, 25, left, .290, 32 HR, 95 RBI

6.) DH Kennys Vargas, 26, S, .280, 22 HR, 85 RBI

7.) C Josmil Pino, 26, .310, 14 HR, 72 RBI

8.) 2B Jorge Polanco, 23, .260, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB

9) SS Danny Santana, 26, switch, .280, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 25 SB

Prediction: Twins will used money in 2014-2016 to sign several young stars to long-term deals. With foundation in place, Terry Ryan and/or Ron Gardenhire may both retire, paving the way for a smooth transition in leadership. Dozier could be traded at some point for young prospects.

Starting Rotation: four year prediction

2014

Ricky Nolasco, 31, right
Phil Hughes, 27, right
Mike Pelfrey, 30, right
Kevin Correia, 34, right
Sam Deduno, 30, right

Predict: Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and/or Sam Deduno will pitch out of the bullpen. Kris Johnson, Vance Worley, Kyle Gibson and/or Andrew Albers will force themselves into the rotation at some point.

2015

Ricky Nolasco, 32, right
Phil Hughes, 28, right
Mike Pelfrey, 31, right
Alex Meyer, 25, right
Kyle Gibson, 27, right

Predict: At least one spot opens up for Alex Meyer and either Kyle Gibson or a young left-hander, likely Sean Gilmartin or Logan Darnell. Alex Meyer could be ready if his arm stays healthy. Pelfrey and Hughes will have to be solid in 2014 to stay in the rotation. Twins could be willing to release or move either one to the bullpen if better options emerge.

2016

Alex Meyer, 26, right
Ricky Nolasco, 33, right
Kyle Gibson, 28, right
Phil Hughes, 29, right
Trevor May, 25, right

Predict: Hughes either stars or flops in last contract season. Meyers and May primed for full seasons. Nolasco can finally settle in as a No 2-4 starter. Team may have one or more solid left-handers that push their way into the rotation.

2017
Alex Meyer, 27, right
Kohl Stewart, 22, right
Kyle Gibson, 29, right 
Ricky Nolasco, 34, right
Trevor May, 26, right

Predict: Rotation should be solid in Nolasco's final year.  Expect at least one dark-horse starter to have stuck with the team. Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Sam Deduno, Andrew Albers, Logan Darnell, Kris Johnson, maybe even Alex Pressley as a starter. 
 

Twins have plenty of lefthanded starters

While the Twins may open the season with five right-handed starting pitchers, they also have five competing left-handers who will be given shot to make the team with a spectacular spring training.

Scott Diamond was the Twins best starter in 2012, going 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA in 27 starts, 174 innings. In 2013, however, he started the year disabled and never really hit his stride, going 6-13 with a 5.43 ERA in 24 starts, 131 innings. At age 27, he has been been compared to Tom Glavine at times, but may suffer from overthinking on the mound.

Andrew Albers had a remarkable 2013 season, going 11-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 132.1 innings at AAA, followed by a somewhat mixed 2-5 record with 4.05 ERA in ten starts and 60 innings with one shutout for the Twins. The 28-year-old former independent league pitcher boasts pinpoint control but little velocity.

Kris Johnson, 29, acquired from the Pirates, was even better than Albers in AAA, going 10-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 135.2 innings. Although he had a 6.10 ERA in 10.1 brief innings for the Pirates, Johnson was noted for throwing five shutout innings in a long, terse game against the Cardinals. His stuff is said to be “a tick better,” than Diamond.

The Twins recently acquired Sean Gilmartin, 23, a former 1^st round draft pick, from the Atlanta Braves for Ryan Doumit. After blazing through the Braves’ farm system in 2011-2012, he had arm injuries in 2013. Pitching for AAA, he was 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in 105 innings.  While he is a long spot to win a big-league spot this year, Gilmartin is the true prospect of the bunch, and could be a nice under-the-radar acquisition for the Twins.

Tucked away on the 40-man roster is 24-year-old, Logan Darnell, who had a very solid 2013 season in the upper minors. Over 153.2 innings between AA and AAA, he was 10-10 with a 3.22 ERA. Don’t be surprised to see Darnell put together a breakthrough season.

Here, the Twins have five quality left-handers that may not even make the rotation. With two legitimate prospects in Gilmartin and Darnell, the Twins have the makings of what could be a solid rotation in the future, paired with hard-throwing right-handers, Alex Meyer, Trevor May and Kohl Stewart.

Fishin' for Starting Pitching

With the 2014 baseball offseason now in it's home stretch leading up to Spring Training, the Twins have cast a wide net in search for a competent starting rotation.

So far, they have signed three big-league starting pitchers to long-term contracts: Ricky Nolasco, 31, (4-years, $49M), Phil Hughes, 27, (3-years, $24M) and Mike Pelfrey, 30, (2-year, $11M). With Kevin Correia, 33, signed for one more season at $5.5M, they have built a virtually full rotation of veterans whose contracts gradually peel away over the next four seasons.

It has been widely know that the Twins have been looking for any and all starting pitching over the past two seasons. All of the team's opening day starters faltered in 2012, and only newcomers, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey made over 25 starts in 2013. This lack of consistent innings meant that the team gave at least eight starts to Vance Worley (7.21 ERA, 48.2 IN), Liam Hendriks (6.85 ERA, 47.1 IN), Pedro Hernandez (6.83 ERA, 56.2 IN), Kyle Gibson (6.53 ERA, 51 IN), P.J. Walters (5.95 ERA, 39.1 IN), Scott Diamond (5.43 ERA, 131 IN) and Andrew Albers (4.05 ERA, 60 IN).

The 2013 Twins were made painfully aware that they cannot trust multiple rotation spots to pitchers without a proven big-league track record. Before the season, Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson and Cole DeVries all seemed like pitchers they were ready to claim rotation spots, while Hernandez and Walters seemed like amiable spot-starters. At the very least, it felt like the Twins finally had a comfortable amount of depth in the rotation.

But just like 2012, the quality of their depth was ripped open and over-exposed.

One huge difference this offseason, however, is that the Twins are finally turning over and improving that marginal depth. Before the 2013 season, the Twins were so desperate for pitching that they retained every able-bodied starting pitcher that finished out 2012 on the team.

Now, with the signings of Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey and trade for Kris Johnson, 29, (2.39 ERA, 135.2 IN at AAA), the Twins have had to let go a slew of their old mainstays, Liam Hendriks, P.J. Walters, Cole DeVries and Pedro Henandez. Twins fans should cheer knowing superior talent and experienced innings are replacing these roster spots.

At this time last year, Scott Diamond, 27, and Vance Worley, 26, were thought to be the Twins' top two starting pitchers, but now both are out of options and in danger of release, trade or move to the bullpen. With Sam Deduno, 30. (3.83 ERA, 108 IN) expected to claim the fifth spot in the rotation, Diamond and Worley now must have stellar spring trainings to remain in the organization.

Having Diamond/Worley as top "fringe" rotation candidates is a lot brighter situation than the days of Walters/Hernandez/DeVries & Co.  

Liam Hendriks, 24, was a surprise release given his youth and potential, but had finally been pushed off the team's depth chart after a marginal season in the minors (4.67 ERA, 98.1 IN at AAA). Kyle Gibson (2.92 ERA, 101 IN at AAA) and Andrew Albers (2.86 ERA, 132.1 IN at AAA) and Kris Johnson (2.39 ERA, 135.2 IN at AAA) all had much superior seasons.

For the first time in years, the Twins could have several pitchers at AAA that have the talent to step in and provide quality innings at the big-league level. "Quality" as well as numbers.