Harden could be secret weapon

The Twins have signed right-handed pitcher, Rich Harden, 31, to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Harden is the classic story of a good stuff pitcher who has struggled with arm injuries throughout his career, but dominated at times when healthy.

Although the Twins have added three new starting pitchers this offseason, none are top-of-the-rotation worthy. So while the Twins are not counting on him or expecting a lot out of the signing, he certainly has the ability to lead the staff if he proves his injuries are behind him. The team could also potentially convert him into a reliever as an effort to keep him healthy.

The good news here is that at age 31, Harden is actually entering his pitching “prime,” although he hasn’t made it through a full season since 2004, at the age of 22.

Over 928.1 major league innings, Harden has only allowed 781 hits and recorded 949 strikeouts with a remarkable .228 opponents’ batting average. His best season was 2008, when he was 10-2 with a 2.07 ERA in 25 starts.

The Twins have had good luck and bad with these types of signings. The bad occurred last year when Joel Zumyaya was injured for the whole season without even throwing a single pitch in a spring training game. The good also came, as Jared Burton had his first healthy season in two years, and emerged as one of the best setup man in the game.

The Twins have been buying low all offseason, by primarily acquiring pitchers who are coming off injuries or off seasons. At some point, they are bound to catch lighting in a bottle.

Underrated Pelfrey pads rotation

The Twins reportedly added their third new starter from the National League, in sinkerball righthander, Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey, 28, has been the Mets’ unsung hero over the past half decade, providing over 30 starts each year from 2008-2011, before undergoing  Tommy John surgery early last season.

The former 1st round pick is not overpowering, but has an impressive career ratio of one home run per 12.8 innings, along with a respectable 1.26 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning).

Twins General Manager, Terry Ryan, has put great efforts into acquiring players that can thrive at Target Field, a ballpark that theoretically plays well to righthanded sinkerball pitchers that can limit fly balls going to left field. 

In 2012, the Twins were tied with the Colorado Rockies for the second most home runs allowed in Major League Baseball, with a ratio of one home run per 7.3 innings. Most of the homers were hit to left field, as Target Field is said to favor right-hander hitters. Left field also happens to be the position of Josh Willingham, the Twins’ poorest defensive player.

Terry Ryan has also preached the need to add “numbers” in regards to starting pitchers, and Pelfrey comes at a fairly low-risk gamble at a one-year $4 million contract with a possible $1.5 million in incentives. Although he had Tommy John surgery last May, and will be watched carefully, the Twins now appear to have some depth to allow him to return to form. Although not unreasonable, the contract is likely $1-2 million more than he was offered by other teams, and the Twins’ financial flexibility played a huge role in the signing.

It’s interesting to note that all three new pitchers, Pelfrey, Vance Worley and Kevin Correia, are sinkerball righthanders that have spent their entire careers in the National League. Typically pitchers have an advantage when facing hitters for the first time, so hopefully this will benefit the new trio of pitchers.

Correia signs, adds rotation depth

The Twins finally landed a free agent starting pitcher, as right-hander, Kevin Correia, 32, pulled the trigger and signed a two-year, $10 million contract. The signing is fair and reasonable on both ends, and perhaps at the low end of what he was predicted to sign for at this point in the offseason. Once again, the Twins find themselves scooping up a wayward Pirate, reuniting him for former catcher, Ryan Doumit, along with a growing list that includes bullpen hopeful, Tim Wood.

For the Twins, it provides them with a veteran ground-ball pitcher that can admirably serve as a #4 or #5 starter, and also has had career success in the bullpen. On the surface, he seems a bit like Kevin Slowey before he turned sour, only with much more adaptability. With the Pirates over the past two seasons, he averaged two fewer strikeouts and one fewer walk per 9 innings, as compared to 2009-10 with the Padres. His overall effectiveness appears consistent of those four years, as a .500 pitcher with around a 4.50 ERA; in essence, the definition of “average” by Major League standards.

This sudden change in strikeouts/walks could be a sign of diminished stuff and added savvy, or perhaps due to a change in coaching philosophy between the two teams. At 32, he should still be at a physical prime, and although the switch to the American League can be somewhat dubious for pitchers, he should also have a better offense behind him than he saw in Pittsburgh or San Diego.

The Twins may have preferred Brandon McCarthy, who signed with the Diamondbacks for two years at $15.5 million, but Correia again comes at a very fair price and likely signed with the Twins because he wanted the opportunity to be a leader. The Twins were also wanting a two-year man, while other teams may have been more likely to offer only one season.

Now, with Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Correia, the Twins only have two rotation more spots to fill. Agents for second-tier pitchers such as Mike Pelfrey, John Lannon, Carlos Villaneva and others may be dismayed to see potentially lucrative Twins' offers dwindle down to one-year or spring training invitee status.

With a large crop of pitchers including Liam Henriks, Cole DeVries, Kyle Gibson, Nick Blackburn, Sam Deduno and PJ Walters all competing for roster spots, don’t expect the Twins to sign another starting pitcher to a long-term deal unless they ante up for Anibal Sanchez, Shaun Marcum or a potential ace. If the Twins are to sign another starter for guaranteed money, it will likely be a one-year gig with perhaps a club option. Joe Saunders would seem the be the best fit, although Brett Myers’ versatility and Francisco Liriano’s occasional dominance could entice the Twins as well.

At this point, Correia serves the role of the back-end rotation veteran, and it wouldn't seem necessary to sign another similar pitcher unless it was on the bargain rack. What the Twins need is an ace, and they have money to spend.

Likely free agent options

Looking into a crystal ball, the Twins have $30 million to spend in 2013, and will have Justin Morneau’s $14 million come off the books in 2014. Aside from relievers, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, they don’t have any other players expecting big pay raises in 2014. 

That means, for the immediate future, there is rare money to spend in Minnesota.

Although top starting pitcher, Zack Greinke, is likely too risky and overpriced for the Twins, I would bet that the team has at least made him an offer worth considering. The Rangers, Dodgers, Angels and Royals are all in a bidding war for his services, but if the introverted Greinke wanted a smaller-profile team, the Twins would likely offer the best contract amongst other low-market suitors, such as the Royals.

Look for Greinke to sign a 5-year contract for between $100-125 million. The Twins may consider a 4-year contract at around $70 million, to put things in perspective. If Josh Hamilton signs with the Rangers and Greinke doesn’t want to pitch in Los Angeles.. there’s a slim chance the Twins may have a chance. Albeit, very slim.

Twins fans should rejoice knowing that Joe Blanton has signed with the Angels, which means the Angels may drop out of the starting pitching market. It also means that the Twins won’t sign Blanton, who is very much on the Jason Marquis level and wouldn’t be a huge upgrade to the staff.

Back to the crystal ball, look for the Twins to sign at least one of the following:

1.) Anibal Sanchez, 3 years, $33-36 million

2.) Edwin Jackson, 2 years, $20-28 million

3.) Ryan Dempster, 1 year, $8-13 million (with similar club option)

4.) Carlos Villanueva, 2 years, $8-12 million

5.) John Lannon, 2 years, $6-10 million

6.) Kevin Correia, 2 years, $10-16 million

7.) Joe Saunders, 1-2 years, $8-22 million

8.) Francisco Liriano, 1 year, $8-11 million (with $12 million club option)

9.) Brett Myers, 2 years, $16-22 million

10.) Brandon McCarthy, 2-3 years, $15-30 million

Given the fact that the Twins are more realistically hoping to compete for the division and a playoff birth in 2014, look for them to sign any quality pitcher to at least a two-year contract. They certainly may go bargain shopping for an older veteran on a one-year deal, but that type of signing would typically be closer to spring training. 

Whomever they sign will likely depend more on the player than the team. The player will be someone who wants a guaranteed starting spot, with a chance to be ace of the staff. This comes in contrast to being in the back end of the rotation with a team that had more success in 2012.

Revere traded for more young pitching

While Denard Span’s trade was almost a foregone conclusion, the Twins pulled off a bit of a shocker by trading former 1st round pick, Ben Revere, to the Philladephia Phillies for right-handed starting pitcher, Vance Worley, and top minor league pitching prospect, Trevor May.

The Twins have stockpiled such tremendous center field depth over the years, that it almost seems like they were starving the rest of the big leagues until the moment was right to unload some assets and replenish the system.

Ben Revere had been blocked for years by Span, and it was widely assumed he would finally take over in center field this season. Instead, the Twins sent him to the Phillies for a take arguably much greater than what they got for Span. But perhaps Revere was the top trade chip all along, with a young player’s contract still under $1 million per season, highlight-reel defense, and a .294 batting average and 40 stolen bases in 2012.

Now, with both Span and Revere gone, they team may somewhat prematurely turn the reins over to yet another former 1st round, Aaron Hicks. Hicks is an outstanding defensive player, compared to Torii Hunter but with a better arm. His offense is also thought to be comparable, as a guy that could possibly hit 20-25 home runs in the future, as well as stealing 20-30 bases per season. His problem has been strikeouts and plate discipline, with at least 110 strikeouts in each of the past three minor league seasons.

Hicks has yet to play above AA, and the Twins typically don’t promote a prospect without at least some time and success in AAA. To help bridge the gap, the Twins also have Darin Mastroianni, who was unassumingly one of the team’s best acquisitions in 2012. Mastroianni can play good defense in center, and is very similar to Reverve in terms of stolen bases and on-base percentage. In only 77 games last season, he stole 21 bases and was only caught three times. At one point, he stole a whopping 70 bases in the minor leagues, and plays an aggressive Twins-style of baseball.

Adding to the outfield depth is Joe Benson, who was a top outfield prospect until floundering in 2012. Before this past season, he hit .285 with 16 home runs in AA, and is still considered a prospect who could turn things around in 2013. Although projected more as a right fielder, he has the athleticism to play center if all else fails.

As shocking as it may seem that the Twins gave up a young talent like Revere, his value may have been at its ceiling given the current scramble for center fielders around major league baseball. The Phillies had missed out on several overpriced free-agent options, and Revere fit in perfectly while giving them some unexpected payroll flexibility.

This deal would not have been made if the Phillies weren’t willing to part with top pitching, and they did just that. Vance Worley had an ok season in 2012 while battling injuries, but was lights-out during his rookie season in 2011, with a 11-3 record and 3.01 ERA in 21 starts. He’s a solid, young starter that is now arguably the Twins top big league starter coming into 2013.

Additionally, the Phillies gave up right hander starter, Trevor May, who has been consistently ranked as the Phillies #1 or 2 prospect over the past two seasons. May hasn’t yet pitched above AA, and has battled control issues, but has a stellar 647 strikeouts and .226 opponents batting average over 525.1 minor league innings. If he can better harness his control, May projects to be a true top-of-the-rotation power arm.

So suddenly, over the course of a week, the Twins has injected a shot of top-talent pitching that should give them a chance in 2013-14. Now, with around $30 million in payroll flexibility, the team will be looking more short-term and immediate to compete in 2013.

2014 may feature top pitching

Although the 2013 starting rotation is far from settled, the Twins appear to have a nice core of talented arms that could be a force in 2014 and beyond.

By trading for Alex Meyer, 22, the Twins find themselves with a possible top-of-the-rotation power pitcher within the near future. Kyle Gibson, 25, and Liam Hendriks, 23, should have the talent to compete in 2013, and project as solid mid-rotation starters. Scott Diamond, 26, already has one good major league season under his belt, and the Twins would be delighted if he can at least maintain his rookie-year performance.

That is a solid core four, perhaps not ready to peek in 2013, but very close. Pedro Henandez, 23, is another young left-handed pitcher that should be able to mature into at least a formidable #4 starter, as well as Cole DeVries, 27, who pitched well in 2012 and would make a respectable back-end starter.

This seems similar to the last wave of Twins starters, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano. Although they all ended their Twins ten-years on rocky notes, it was a solid core 2008-2010, decent enough to compete for the playoffs.

Certainly the Twins hope for more out of this group than the previous class, but what can’t be understated is that these young pitchers are all developing at relatively the same time, and should peek together at the right time.

Looking ahead to 2013, it’s expected that the Twins will sign at least one decent starter to a semi-long term contract, with possibly one or even two additional starters for one-year deals. Given the potential for a starting pitching boon in 2014, don’t look for the Twins to sign more than one starter to a long-term deal. Right now, they essentially need a few stopgaps while Meyer, Gibson and Henandez can develop more thoroughly. 

Currently, the 2013 rotation looks like this:

1.) Scott Diamond

2.) Liam Hendriks

3.) Cole DeVries

4.) Sam Deduno

5.) PJ Walters

Alt: Nick Blackburn

Ideally, Sam Deduno, PJ Walters and Nick Blackburn would be used more as spot starters to protect younger or injured pitchers,  pitching in AAA if the team can sign or trade for at least two new starters.

Span traded for top prospect

Twins General Manager, Terry Ryan, has never been one to follow convention. 

Denard Span has been available and rumored to be traded for the past two seasons, but Ryan knew he had a solid everyday player and former 1st round draft pick, a player under a very club-friendly contract that deserved a good return. Additionally, a full season of good health eliminated any concerns that Span may experience concussion-like symptoms that plagued him during 2011, which previously hampered his trade value.

After all this waiting and speculating, it was finally the moment when Denard Span’s value was at it’s absolute peak. Center field has arguably been the position in most high demand this offseason, with the Phillies, Nationals, Braves, Rays and Giants all looking to sign a veteran center fielder and leadoff hitter. As fate would have it, these five teams arguably have the deepest starting pitching depth in baseball, well documented as the Twins most glaring need. 

The center field market had been waiting on top free agent, BJ Upton, who finally signed a 5-year, $75.25 million deal with the Braves. That left the Phillies, Nationals, Rays and Giants to all compete for the likes of former Giants center fielder, Angel Pagan, 32, whom is likely to be overpaid generously. The timing also comes just before the Winter Meetings, when many teams may solve center field problems, thus decreasing Span’s competitive value.

On paper, Pagan and Span’s statistical value is nearly identical. 

Span:: .284 average, .357 OBP, 90 stolen bases, 2354 career at-bats. 

Pagan:: .281 average, .333 OBP, 124 stolen bases, 2414 career at-bats

The main difference, however, is that Span is four years younger and under a contract that should pay him approximately half of Pagan’s projected salary over the next three seasons. Assuming all options are picked up, Span will earn $20.25 million over the next three seasons. Pagan is rumored to be seeking at least a three-year deal worth in the range of $30-40 million.

That means that any team interested in Pagan could get a younger player in Span for a savings of at least $10-20 million. Yes, it would seem the Twins had a very nice bargaining chip.

Popular convention would have the Twins trading for one of at least six solid major-league ready starting pitchers on the Nationals or Rays roster. That’s right, each team has at least six pitchers that would easily crack the top-3 on the Twins staff.

Terry Ryan, however, has never been one to play by popular convention. Rather than picking a more experienced pitcher, he focused on pure talent, and sneakily acquired Alex Meyer, the 23rd overall draft pick in 2011. Meyer has only one season of minor league experience, but is a soon-to-be 23-year-old who stands at 6’9”, dominated in college and has drawn comparisons to Justin Verlander. With a fastball clocked at 99 miles per hour and a nasty knuckle-curve, Meyer now has perhaps the best stuff in the Twins organization.

Although it seems likely he will start in AA New Britain, Ryan coyly hinted that Meyer will be given a shot to crack to major-league rotation sooner rather than later.

“I'll let him dictate where he's going to end up in which spot in the rotation and all that. But he's certainly has the capability of providing some quality innings." Ryan was quoted, indicating that there may be little hesitation if he is one of their top 5 starting options.

"Every club in the game wants pitching of this nature. He's got stuff, and he throws it over."

Trading for a young power pitcher is certainly risky, as most tend to suffer Tommy John surgery or something similar early in their careers. But certainly the Twins will be careful with him, and they may have landed a possible top pitcher for many years to come.

Twins to rebuild, starting with coaching

After two 90+ lose seasons, the Twins made one of there boldest coaching shakeups in recent team history by dismissing Bullpen Coach, Rick Stelmaszek, First Base Coach, Jerry White, and Third Base Coach, Steve Liddle.

Additionally, the team reassigned former Hitting Coach, Joe Vavra, to 3rd Base/Infield Coach and former Bench Coach, Scott Ullger, to 1st Base/Outfield Coach. Manager, Ron Gardenhire, and Pitching Coach, Rick Anderson, were the only two coaches to remain in their former capacity, while Terry Ryan officially became the permanent General Manager after serving as “Interim” during 2012.

The new coaching staff shakes up like this:

Manager: Ron Gardenhire

Hitting Coach: Tom Brunansky

Bench Coach/Catching Instructor: Terry Steinbach

1st Base Coach/Outfield Instructor: Scott Ullger

3rd Base Coach/Infield Instructor: Joe Vavra

Pitching Coach: Rick Anderson

Bullpen Coach: Bobby Cuellar

The coaching shake-up marks a distinct shift in approach by the Twins organization, which has struggled by maintaining a Metrodome-style team in a vastly different new ballpark. Both Brunansky and Steinbach are former Twins known for their right-handed pull hitting during their playing days. Both are former All-Stars and World Series winners.

Varva and the rest of the former staff had preached hitting to all fields and keeping the ball out of the air, which had worked well on the fast artificial turf of the Metrodome. Target Field has proved to be a much slower infield, and the team will need to adjust by hitting the ball more in the air, and perhaps, out of the fences.

Former coaches, Steve Liddle and Jerry White, were very good people and well respected within the organization. However, fundamentals had shown little improvement over the past few years, and neither had World Series experience or a winning “swagger” that is needed within a clubhouse. Most likely, both will at least be offered minor league coaching jobs within the organization.

Rick Stelmaszek was the longest tenyeared coach in team history, at 32 years, and the team had hoped he would retire gracefully. He had been kept on as a mascot of sorts, well liked and very knowledgeable of Twins history. Unfortunately, poor health and age had somewhat limited his abilities, and Rick Anderson simply needed more able help.

Bobby Cuellar was likely on the verge of landing a big league job elsewhere, after patching together a remarkable pitching staff at AAA Rochester. As the big league pitching staff imploded, Cuellar was the season’s unsung hero, by constantly sending up retread pitchers who had surprising success.

Scott Diamond, Cole De Vries, Samuel Deduno and PJ Walters all had career years under Cuellar’s watch, all serving admirably when sent up to the big leagues. Liam Hendricks, Nick Blackburn and others also pitched extremely well while in AAA.

While the team struggled on the field, Ron Gardenhire remained sound in his decision making, and the team made the right move to keep both he and Rich Anderson.

These coaching decisions were not easy to make, but significantly beefs up the staff while retaining enough familiar faces to maintain a sense of continuity with the players. It should be the first step in changing the approach of a stumbling franchise.

Twins make right moves at deadline

The Twins drew some criticism for not trading away more of their veteran players, such as Dernard Span, Josh Willingham or Justin Mournou at the August 1 non-waiver trading deadline.

They did trade their most talented starting pitcher, Francisco Liriano, 28, once nicknamed “The Franchise,” to the rival Chicago White Sox, and have since traded former starting third baseman, Danny Valencia, 27,  to the Boston Red Sox.

With veteran pitchers, Carl Pavano, 36, and Matt Capps, 28, spending untimely stints on the disabled list, it would seem like the team may be through making swaps. Jared Burton, 31, is sure to get plenty of inquiries, and is a free agent at the end of the year, but the feeling is that the team will want to pursue the reliever for next season, who has been stellar with a 2.25 ERA over 44 innings.

Realistically, Span and Willingham are professional players under bargain contracts, and would be hard to replace at the major league level. Additionally, Ben Revere has proved that he can play right field, and the Twins should be very content with their outfield for next season.

Trading Liriano to the division-leading White Sox may be a tough pill to swallow, but the White Sox are very familiar with Liriano’s talents were willing to overlook his unsightly 3-10 record and 5.31 ERA. He’s also a free-agent at the end of the year, and was unlikely to be re-signed with a hefty salary raise expected.

In fact, the Twins received two decent upper-level prospects in the trade. Eduardo Escobar is only 23, and had spent the entire season as the White Sox utility middle infielder. According to reports, Escobar is a speedy switch-hitter with a good arm and glove, projected as an Orlando Cabrera-type player. He gives the team needed depth at shortstop, a position that has been unstable for the Twins since Jason Bartlett was traded after the 2007 season.

The Twins also acquired left-handed starting pitcher Pedro Hernandez, 23, who has a slightly above-average fastball, along with a decent slider and change-up. Although not a front-line starter, he’s a good control pitcher with potential, and has had a nice season split between AA and AAA, with an 8-3 record and 3.49 ERA in 87.2 innings pitched. 

Hernandez gives the Twins a legitimate young prospect to add to the starting pitching mix, as they have been forced to test out older rookie pitchers such as Sam Deduno, 29, and P.J. Walters, 27, and Cole DeVries, 27, for much of the year.

Danny Valencia, meanwhile, had all but fallen off the Twins radar after a poor season in the majors .198 BA, 2 HR, 132 ABs, and mediocre stats in AAA .250, 7 HR, 284 ABs. Although he showed decent production in 2009 and 2010, Trevor Plouffe has emerged as the third-base favorite, with 19 HRs in 259 ABs this season.

In the Valencia trade, the Twins acquired Rookie-ball outfielder Jeremias Pineda, 21, a switch-hitter who was batting .421 in 133 ABs, along with 14 stolen bases, for the Gulf Coast rookie league. This is the type of low-level acquisition Terry Ryan has always had a knack for, and not a bad trade considering Valencia’s current value.

d.anderson 2012

2012 Twins 1st half Recap (offense)

The Twins struggled mightily on offense during the first month of the season, mainly due to a lack of production at third base, first base, and right field. Additionally, production was mediocre at shortstop and second base, while Ryan Doumit’s time in the lineup was stunted by Justin Morneau needing to DH.

The Twins, as they have done effectively many years prior, made the necessary adjustments, and now enter the second half with a healthy lineup that can compete against just about any team in baseball. 

Additionally, the versatility provided by Jamey Carroll (2B, SS, 3B), Ryan Doumit (C, RF, DH), Joe Mauer (C, 1B, DH), Trevor Plouffe (3B, SS, OF) and Darin Mastroianni (OF, PR) mean that the team can survive on very minimal bench support, freeing up roster spots for pitching.

Certainly, the emergence of Trevor Plouffe at 3B, Ben Revere at RF and Justin Morneau  playing everyday at first base made all the difference, in addition to playing Brian Dozier at shortstop full-time, which frees up Carroll and Castilla to mix and match at second base and as utility players.

Current Lineup looks like this:

1.) Denard Span, CF, .270, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB

2.) Ben Revere, RF, .316, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 18 SB

3.) Joe Mauer, C, .324, 5 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB

4.) Josh Willingham, LF, .261, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 2 SB

5.) Justin Morneau, 1B, .246 11 HR, 38 RBI, 1 SB

6.) Trevor Plouffe, 3B, .253, 19 HR, 36 RBI, 0 SB

7.) Ryan Doumit, DH, .286, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 0 SB

8.) Brian Dozier, SS, .242, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 6 SB

9.) Jamey Carroll, 2B, .234, 0 HR, 25 RBI, 6 SB

Reserves:

Alexi Castilla, 2B/SS, .236, 0 HR, 14 RBI, 10 SB

Darin Mastroiani, OF/PR, .269, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 9 SB

Drew Butera, C, .242, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB

Ideally, the Twins would have a strong hitter on the bench for pinch-hitting situations, and kept Chris Parmelee for that role during inter-league play. Although he seemed to have turned the corner after a productive stint in AAA, playing time was scarce and the team eventually returned him to the minors for regular playing time.

Looking down at the AAA roster, the Twins may possibly add Sean Burroughs down the stretch if they can afford to subtract a pitcher. Burroughs is hitting .280 in 175 at-bats, and has experience in a reserve role. Danny Valencia has shown marginal offensive improvement, but is perhaps ill-suited for a bench role.

Brian Dozier has had some growing pains at the plate and in the field, but the team believes it can compensate for his shortcomings within a mostly-veteran lineup. Trevor Plouffe prepared to be an outfielder this offseason, and has been a mixed bag in the field at third. However, he is improving by the day, and his bat has more than picked up the slack with 19 home runs.

Ben Revere has had a tremendous year in the field and at the plate since taking over right field full-time. This has led to ongoing speculation that Denard Span would be traded, although he still has two years remaining on a very club-friendly contact ($3M in '12, $4.75 in '13, $6.5 in '14).

If Span were traded, Chris Parmalee and Darin Mastroiani would get first crack at right field, with Revere moving to center. The Twins value Span’s ability and leadership more than his numbers might reflect, and would need a solid or very promising starting pitcher in return for any trade.

Justin Morneau has one year remaining on his contract, which pays a base salary of $14 million in both 2012 and 2013. With Parmalee ready to take over first base, the Twins would be keen on dumping Morneau’s salary, but would likely need to eat a large portion of the contract in any potential trade. This isn’t in the Twins style, and they may keep him through the year and hope for a breakout 2013 season.

Rumors have swelled that Josh Willingham may be dealt, but highly unlikely given the bargain 3-year, $21M contract he signed before the season. Power has always been in short supply for the Twins, and he has carried an offense that requires a few long-balls to compete in Target Field.

The Twins have a solid lineup that is capable of increased production for the remained of the year, and should be largely in-tact for 2013. The biggest question may be how to fit Chris Parmalee’s bat into the lineup.

...

d.anderson 2012

2012 Twins 1st Half Recap (pitching)

Every team must adapt during the course of a 162 game season, but the Twins rode a very unexpected ride right out of the shoot in 2012.

Coming into spring training, the starting rotation shaped up like this 
(based on 2011 starts):

1.) Carl Pavano, R,  9-13, 33 starts, 4.30 ERA, 222 IP, 262 hits, .294 BA

2.) Scott Baker, R,  8-6, 21 starts, 3.14 ERA, 134.2 IP, 126 hits, .248 BA

3.) Francisco Liriano, L, 9-10, 24 starts, 5.09 ERA, 134.1 IP, 125 hits, .249 BA

4.) Nick Blackburn, R, 7-10, 26 starts, 4.49 ERA, 148.1 IP, 183 hits, .305 BA

5.) Jason Marquis, R, 8-6, 23 starts, 4.43 ERA, 132 IP, 154 hits, .294 BA

Those aren’t career numbers, but looks like a rotation that can compete. Instead, all starters opened the season with career worst starts 
(2012, first half):

1.) Carl Pavano, R, 2-5, 11 starts, 6.00 ERA, 63 IP, 80 hits, .313 BA

2.) Scott Baker, R - Injured Did Not Play

3.) Francisco Liriano, L, 3-7, 14 starts, 5.08 ERA, 83.1 IP, 74 hits, .242 BA

4.) Nick Blackburn, R, 4-5, 13 starts, 8.10 ERA, 63.1 IP, 90 hits, .333 BA

5.) Jason Marquis, R, 2-4, 7 starts, 8.47 ERA, 34 IP, 52 hits, .371 BA

+.) Liam Hendricks, R, 0-5, 8 starts, 7.04 ERA, 38.1 IP, 57 hits, .345 BA

Scott Baker was injured in spring training, missing the year. Jason Marquis was released. Carl Pavano was ineffective and injured. Francisco Liriano spent time in the bullpen. Nick Blackburn was sent to the minor leagues. Even the first-string replacement, Liam Hendricks, has been ineffective and is now in the minor leagues.

Now, as the second half comes to a close, the rotation looks like this:

1.) Francisco Liriano, L,  3-7, 14 starts, 5.08 ERA, 83.1 IP, 74 hits, .242 BA

2.) Scott Diamond, L,  7-3, 12 starts, 2.62 ERA, 79 IP, 81 hits, .266 BA

3.) Brian Duensing, L,  1-5, 3 starts, 4.11 ERA, 46 IP, 44 hits, .253 BA

4.) Cole De Vries, R,  2-1, 5 starts, 3.00 ERA, 30 IP, 25 hits, .225 BA

5.) Samuel Deduno, R,  0-0, 1 start, 5.06 ERA, 5.1 IP, 6 hits, .333 BA

+.) PJ Walters, R,  2-2, 7 starts, 5.40 ERA, 36.2 IP, 42 hits, .300 BA

Of the original 5 starters, only Francisco Liriano remains, although he got off to a terrible start and spent time in the bullpen before a recent surge. No other pitcher in the rotation was expected to start in the big leagues this year, and only Duensing was expected to see time on the 25-man roster.

In truth, the 2012 season has become an rare opportunity for several Twins pitchers who find themselves in the right time and place. Diamond and De Vries were considered marginal prospects at best, while Walters and Deduno were career AAA pitchers on the fringes of retirement. It will certainly be interesting to see what becomes of the rotation in the second half. 

Liriano is a likely trade candidate, and may garner a nice package as one of the few front-line pitchers available. The Twins will need to go on an absolute tear for the rest of July to justify keeping him, a high-dollar free agent at the end of the year.

Pavano isn’t near ready to return, but could also be a trade candidate if healthy. So far, the nature of his injury is a bit mysterious and it’s unclear if or when he’ll pitch again this year.

Brian Duensing is better suited for the bullpen, under normal circumstances. He was definitely the unsung hero in the ‘pen early this year, which later fell into disarray after Matt Capps was injured. Several close games lost down the stretch may have been won with Duensing in relief instead of Tyler Robertson, Jeff Manship, etc. That said, he’s has had success and even playoff experience as a starter, making him one of the few veteran options on a fringy starting staff.

De Vries is forcing his case with surprising confidence and poise on the mound. He doesn’t have amazing stuff but is a fiery personality lacking in the rotation. Closing out his second half with seven shutout innings against a potent Rangers offense definitely turned some heads, and he’ll get the chance to prove he can start consistently.

Blackburn pitched 8 shutout innings in his first AAA start. The Twins want him back pitching in the big leagues, and will probably give him 3-5 more minor league starts to find himself.

Liam Hendricks has the most potential, but easily rattled in the big leagues. After shuttling back and forth between dominating AAA (1.69 ERA, 53.1 IP) and struggling with the Twins (7.04 ERA, 38.1 IP), it’s unclear how the rest of his year will be handled. Often compared to Scott Baker, he is following a similar path of the fellow pitcher who struggled to initially stick in the big leagues.

Walters and Deduno are like yin and yang. Walters has good control, but meager stuff. Deduno has good stuff, but meager control. But if they are to have a future as professional ball players, this is certainly the best chance they’ll get.

Only Scott Diamond appears in the clear, as his strong pitching all season likely will keep in in the rotation for years to come.

Starting pitching was expected to be a strong suit for the team, but the bullpen proved to be the shining star in the first half. Jared Burton and Jeff Gray emerged as excellent non-roster pickups, while Alex Burnett and Brian Duensing sparkles in their roles as middle relievers.

Before his injury, Matt Capps had returned to form, and may be a possible trade candidate down the stretch. Glen Perkins has been decent as a fill-in closer, but the lefthander makes the team much stronger as a setup man.

Casey Fien and Kyle Waldrop should be good middle relievers, but it’s unclear if their spots are saved once several injured pitchers return to the team. Anthony Swarzak has been sucking in his pride as the long man reliever on a team with a wide open starting rotation, but has saved several games with a knack for stellar 2-3 inning outings. Tyler Robertson has pitched decently as a left-handed specialist, filling in while Perkins closes and Duensing starts.

2012 Twins relievers (active roster):

Injured closer:

M. Capps, R, 1-4, 14 Svs, 3.42 ERA, 26.1 IP, 24 hits, 4 walks, 16 SO, .233

Setup/Closer:

G. Perkins, L, 1-1, 4 Svs, 3.11 ERA, 37.2 IP, 41 hits, 13 walks, 44 SO, .277

J. Burton, R, 1-0, 2 Svs, 2.55 ERA, 35.1 IP, 24 hits, 8 walks, 34 SO, .189 BA

Middle Relief:

Alex Burnett, R, 2-2, 2.49 ERA, 43.1 IP, 32 hits, 15 walks, 19 SO, .217 BA

Jeff Gray, R, 5-0, 3.93 ERA, 36.2 IP, 37 hits, 16 walks, 18 SO, .255 BA

Long Relief:

A. Swarzak, R, 2-4, 4.31 ERA, 62.2 IP, 65 hits, 19 walks, 36 SO, .277 

Additional Relievers:

Kyle Waldrop, R, 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 4 IP, 7 hits, 3 walks, 1 SO, .412 BA

Tyler Robertson, L, 0-0, 7.20 ERA, 5 IP, 7 hits, 1 walk, 7 SO, .350 BA

Casey Fien, R, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 walks, 0 SO, .250 BA

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d.anderson 2012

Blackburn's historically poor start

If cats have nine lives, Nick Blackburn must be a tiger, having now notched eleven poor starts in twelve appearances. In fact, his start to the 2012 season is beginning to range on a historically poor level, on par with infamously awful years by Jim Deshaies (1994, 7.39 ERA), Scott Aldred (1997, 7.68 ERA) and LaTroy Hawkins' "summer of the beast" (1999, 6.66 ERA over 33 starts). 


Only the mythical Sean Bergman produced notably worse numbers (2000, 9.66 ERA, 14 starts).

Excluding Jason Marquis’ 8.47 ERA in seven starts this year, you need to go back to the dreadful 1999-2000 years to find comparisons. That 1999 pitching staff, coached by Dick Such, produced only two pitchers with over 50 IP and ERA’s under 4.00, Brad Radke (3.75 ERA, 218.2 IP) and Bob Wells (3.81 ERA, 87.1 IP).

Here’s a look at the Twins all-time worst starting pitching performances from the past two decades, with over ten starts:

Nick Blackburn (2012) 4-5, 12 starts, 7.74 ERA, 59.1 IP, 82 hits, .323 BA

Scott Baker (2006) 5-8, 16 starts, 6.37 ERA, 83.1 IP, 114 hits, .324 BA

Joe Mays (2003) 8-8, 21 starts, 6.30 ERA, 130 IP, 159 hits, .302 BA

Sean Bergman (2000) 4-5, 14 starts, 9.66 ERA, 68 IP, 111 hits, .374 BA

JC Romero (2000) 2-7, 11 starts, 7.02 ERA, 57.2 IP, 72 hits, .312 BA

Mike Lincoln (1999) 3-10, 15 starts, 6.84 ERA, 76.1 IP, 102 hits, .330 BA

LaTroy Hawkins (1999) 10-14, 33 starts, 6.66 ERA, 174.1 IP, 238 hits, .323

Dan Perkins (1999) 1-7, 12 starts, 6.54 ERA, 86.2 IP, 117 hits, .326 BA

Frankie Rodriguez (1998) 4-6, 11 starts, 6.56 ERA, 70 IP, 88 hits, .303 BA

Scott Aldred (1997) 2-10, 15 starts, 7.68 ERA, 77.1 IP, 102 hits, .323 BA

Jose Parra (1995) 1-5, 12 starts, 7.59 ERA, 61.2 IP, 83 hits, .312 BA

Jim Deshaies (1994) 6-12, 25 starts, 7.39 ERA, 130.1 IP, 170 hits, .321 BA

Blackburn owns respectable stats over his career, 4.75 ERA over 779.1 IP, but it seems his time in the rotation must be nearing an end. However, with Carl Pavano and PJ Walters still disabled, he may get one last opportunity due to a shorthanded staff. 

Sinkerballers are known for inconsistency, and perhaps a stint in the bullpen or minor leagues could help revamp his year. With Jason Marquis excelling in San Diego, with a 2.05 ERA over 4 starts and 26.1 IP, the Twins may be hesitant to outright release the veteran pitcher.

Plouffe, Revere step up

While the Twins were ridden with disasters to start the year, they finally swept through with changes and adjustments that are reaping rewards. 

Thinking that Ben Revere wasn’t a proper fit for right field, the team sent him to AAA where he tore up minor league pitching, and a merry-go-round of journeyman outfielders struggled to stake a claim. Upon return, he has jump-started team offense at the top of the order, while his outstanding range in right has saved numerous runs on defense.

Trevor Plouffe, like several other young players, flopped to start the year. A decent on-base percentage gave the team hope enough to keep him in the lineup, eventually taking over primary third base duties. A torrid June has raised his average over .100 points, while he suddenly has taken over the team lead with 14 home runs and become one of the most feared hitters in the lineup. 

First base, third base and right field were the team’s major holes at the start of the year. With Justin Morneau back at first, the team amazingly has all three holes covered and are scoring runs and producing at all positions. Additionally, Jamey Carroll, Darin Mastroianni, Chris Parmalee and Drew Butera as third catcher give the team an outstanding bench full of speed and good defense. 

As long as no player enters a prolonged slump or someone blows up AAA, is seems the Twins finally have a well-balanced an effective roster of position players together, and can slow down the revolving door.

Starting pitching is now the key to success, but remains a question mark. Scott Diamond has “sparkled” with a 5-2 record and 2.13 ERA in eight starts, and while unlikely to maintain that pace, he appears to have the poise and maturity to stay successful. Francisco Liriano is back in the rotation, and improving with every start. Beyond that, the best hope is to get three pitchers who can provide mediocre starts on a consistent basis. 

Liam Hendricks dominated AAA, with a 1.94 ERA in seven starts, and will get every opportunity to stay in the rotation. P.J. Walters had some nice moments, but inconsistency and a bum shoulder put him in doubt. Nick Blackburn has remained awful, but is a veteran who could rebound. Carl Pavano is on the disabled list, and who knows how he’ll return. If all fails, Cole DeVries proved in three spot starts that he can battle and at least keep the team in the game for 5-6 innings, while sitting in the wings at AAA.

Bottom line, things are looking up and team depth is improving. As long as the lineup stays relatively healthy and the rotation keeps plugging along, there’s hope that a .500 record could be in reach. 

Walters inspired in complete game win

It’s been a long ride for P.J. Walters, 27, who is getting his first serious taste of the big leagues in his six year professional career. In 2010, his daughter was born prematurely, and died in the final days of spring training. After getting traded to the Blue Jays late in 2011, he made one appearance before getting sent down to AAA and posting a 8.38 ERA with 44 hits in 29 innings.

In the world of professional baseball, he was getting darn near the end of the line, before the Twins took an insurance flier on him this offseason. It was considered a very minor move, mainly an “if all hell breaks lose” signing.

Well, all hell did break lose, and after his strong start at AAA, and an implosion by the Twins starting staff, Walters found himself as one of the more unassuming starting pitchers on a big league roster. His fastball can rarely touch 90, and he’s never been a top prospect, but pitches with fire in his eyes, movement on the ball, and a quick pace with somewhat deceptive all-effort windup. Perhaps most importantly in the short-term, he has come out of nowhere and opposing hitters have no idea what to expect.

Yesterday, Walters turned in the best pitching performance of the year for the Twins, a complete game with only two runs allowed. Afterwards, he thanked his teammates, hugging pitching coach Rick Anderson when he came off the mound. For a team of mostly veterans, this was perhaps a touching and inspiring sight. 

The team has truthfully been in a bit of a rut in recent years, pinned to a starting staff of relatively successful players that seemed to lack drive and focus at times. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have both won MVPs, and are in the middle of long careers. After a dismal start, many teams would start going through the motions, playing out the season.

What Walters brings, and hopefully Cole DeVries and Scott Diamond, is some life and excitement to the staff. These are players getting their first big opportunities, possibly make-or-break moments for their careers. Division rivals have also grown accustomed to the same style of starters from the Twins, and perhaps now isn’t a bad time for a house-clearing, giving a few pitchers opportunities they’ve never had.

Hopefully the rest of the team feeds off the new energy, which has happened more routinely over the past two weeks

DeVries called up

The Twins made a somewhat curious move by selecting Cole DeVries from AAA Rochester to replace struggling starter, Jason Marquis. DeVries has been a mediocre minor league reliever the past two seasons, and is only eight starts into his return to starting, posting a 1-4 record, 4.24 ERA and 47 hits in 46.2 innings.

Again, this is just a matter of getting someone in the rotation that can keep the team in the game into the fifth or sixth inning, and expectations aren’t particularly high. The surprise isn’t the replacement of Marquis, but that the team chose DeVries over more recognizable pitchers, Liam Hendricks and Jeff Manship. Perhaps the thinking here was along the lines of, “you guys have had your chance, let’s give a new kid the ball.”

At the age of 27, DeVries is not a “blue chip” prospect, but his control has intrigued the Twins this season, with only 7 walks on the year. The feeling may be that Henricks and Liriano need more time to find themselves, and that DeVries can step in for a few starts and give them a better chance to win than Marquis.

Once Blackburn comes off the disabled list, the team will need to decide weither to demote DeVries or P.J. Walters, or move Blackburn to the bullpen. There’s a decent chance he may get some rehab starts in the minor leagues to see if his stuff has come back.

Carl Pavano has battled shoulder ailments all year, and there’s talk that Swarzak, Duensing or Liriano may make a spot start to give him extra rest. With starting pitching thinned and a solid core of relievers in AAA, one of these more veteran pitchers will likely return to the rotation shortly. It's unlikely that the full rookie trio of Diamond, Walters and DeVries will be able to remain consistent over the long run. although they are certainly being auditioned for more than just "place holders" if they can take hold of the opportunity.