2012 Twins 1st half Recap (offense)

The Twins struggled mightily on offense during the first month of the season, mainly due to a lack of production at third base, first base, and right field. Additionally, production was mediocre at shortstop and second base, while Ryan Doumit’s time in the lineup was stunted by Justin Morneau needing to DH.

The Twins, as they have done effectively many years prior, made the necessary adjustments, and now enter the second half with a healthy lineup that can compete against just about any team in baseball. 

Additionally, the versatility provided by Jamey Carroll (2B, SS, 3B), Ryan Doumit (C, RF, DH), Joe Mauer (C, 1B, DH), Trevor Plouffe (3B, SS, OF) and Darin Mastroianni (OF, PR) mean that the team can survive on very minimal bench support, freeing up roster spots for pitching.

Certainly, the emergence of Trevor Plouffe at 3B, Ben Revere at RF and Justin Morneau  playing everyday at first base made all the difference, in addition to playing Brian Dozier at shortstop full-time, which frees up Carroll and Castilla to mix and match at second base and as utility players.

Current Lineup looks like this:

1.) Denard Span, CF, .270, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB

2.) Ben Revere, RF, .316, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 18 SB

3.) Joe Mauer, C, .324, 5 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB

4.) Josh Willingham, LF, .261, 19 HR, 60 RBI, 2 SB

5.) Justin Morneau, 1B, .246 11 HR, 38 RBI, 1 SB

6.) Trevor Plouffe, 3B, .253, 19 HR, 36 RBI, 0 SB

7.) Ryan Doumit, DH, .286, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 0 SB

8.) Brian Dozier, SS, .242, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 6 SB

9.) Jamey Carroll, 2B, .234, 0 HR, 25 RBI, 6 SB

Reserves:

Alexi Castilla, 2B/SS, .236, 0 HR, 14 RBI, 10 SB

Darin Mastroiani, OF/PR, .269, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 9 SB

Drew Butera, C, .242, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB

Ideally, the Twins would have a strong hitter on the bench for pinch-hitting situations, and kept Chris Parmelee for that role during inter-league play. Although he seemed to have turned the corner after a productive stint in AAA, playing time was scarce and the team eventually returned him to the minors for regular playing time.

Looking down at the AAA roster, the Twins may possibly add Sean Burroughs down the stretch if they can afford to subtract a pitcher. Burroughs is hitting .280 in 175 at-bats, and has experience in a reserve role. Danny Valencia has shown marginal offensive improvement, but is perhaps ill-suited for a bench role.

Brian Dozier has had some growing pains at the plate and in the field, but the team believes it can compensate for his shortcomings within a mostly-veteran lineup. Trevor Plouffe prepared to be an outfielder this offseason, and has been a mixed bag in the field at third. However, he is improving by the day, and his bat has more than picked up the slack with 19 home runs.

Ben Revere has had a tremendous year in the field and at the plate since taking over right field full-time. This has led to ongoing speculation that Denard Span would be traded, although he still has two years remaining on a very club-friendly contact ($3M in '12, $4.75 in '13, $6.5 in '14).

If Span were traded, Chris Parmalee and Darin Mastroiani would get first crack at right field, with Revere moving to center. The Twins value Span’s ability and leadership more than his numbers might reflect, and would need a solid or very promising starting pitcher in return for any trade.

Justin Morneau has one year remaining on his contract, which pays a base salary of $14 million in both 2012 and 2013. With Parmalee ready to take over first base, the Twins would be keen on dumping Morneau’s salary, but would likely need to eat a large portion of the contract in any potential trade. This isn’t in the Twins style, and they may keep him through the year and hope for a breakout 2013 season.

Rumors have swelled that Josh Willingham may be dealt, but highly unlikely given the bargain 3-year, $21M contract he signed before the season. Power has always been in short supply for the Twins, and he has carried an offense that requires a few long-balls to compete in Target Field.

The Twins have a solid lineup that is capable of increased production for the remained of the year, and should be largely in-tact for 2013. The biggest question may be how to fit Chris Parmalee’s bat into the lineup.

...

d.anderson 2012

2012 Twins 1st Half Recap (pitching)

Every team must adapt during the course of a 162 game season, but the Twins rode a very unexpected ride right out of the shoot in 2012.

Coming into spring training, the starting rotation shaped up like this 
(based on 2011 starts):

1.) Carl Pavano, R,  9-13, 33 starts, 4.30 ERA, 222 IP, 262 hits, .294 BA

2.) Scott Baker, R,  8-6, 21 starts, 3.14 ERA, 134.2 IP, 126 hits, .248 BA

3.) Francisco Liriano, L, 9-10, 24 starts, 5.09 ERA, 134.1 IP, 125 hits, .249 BA

4.) Nick Blackburn, R, 7-10, 26 starts, 4.49 ERA, 148.1 IP, 183 hits, .305 BA

5.) Jason Marquis, R, 8-6, 23 starts, 4.43 ERA, 132 IP, 154 hits, .294 BA

Those aren’t career numbers, but looks like a rotation that can compete. Instead, all starters opened the season with career worst starts 
(2012, first half):

1.) Carl Pavano, R, 2-5, 11 starts, 6.00 ERA, 63 IP, 80 hits, .313 BA

2.) Scott Baker, R - Injured Did Not Play

3.) Francisco Liriano, L, 3-7, 14 starts, 5.08 ERA, 83.1 IP, 74 hits, .242 BA

4.) Nick Blackburn, R, 4-5, 13 starts, 8.10 ERA, 63.1 IP, 90 hits, .333 BA

5.) Jason Marquis, R, 2-4, 7 starts, 8.47 ERA, 34 IP, 52 hits, .371 BA

+.) Liam Hendricks, R, 0-5, 8 starts, 7.04 ERA, 38.1 IP, 57 hits, .345 BA

Scott Baker was injured in spring training, missing the year. Jason Marquis was released. Carl Pavano was ineffective and injured. Francisco Liriano spent time in the bullpen. Nick Blackburn was sent to the minor leagues. Even the first-string replacement, Liam Hendricks, has been ineffective and is now in the minor leagues.

Now, as the second half comes to a close, the rotation looks like this:

1.) Francisco Liriano, L,  3-7, 14 starts, 5.08 ERA, 83.1 IP, 74 hits, .242 BA

2.) Scott Diamond, L,  7-3, 12 starts, 2.62 ERA, 79 IP, 81 hits, .266 BA

3.) Brian Duensing, L,  1-5, 3 starts, 4.11 ERA, 46 IP, 44 hits, .253 BA

4.) Cole De Vries, R,  2-1, 5 starts, 3.00 ERA, 30 IP, 25 hits, .225 BA

5.) Samuel Deduno, R,  0-0, 1 start, 5.06 ERA, 5.1 IP, 6 hits, .333 BA

+.) PJ Walters, R,  2-2, 7 starts, 5.40 ERA, 36.2 IP, 42 hits, .300 BA

Of the original 5 starters, only Francisco Liriano remains, although he got off to a terrible start and spent time in the bullpen before a recent surge. No other pitcher in the rotation was expected to start in the big leagues this year, and only Duensing was expected to see time on the 25-man roster.

In truth, the 2012 season has become an rare opportunity for several Twins pitchers who find themselves in the right time and place. Diamond and De Vries were considered marginal prospects at best, while Walters and Deduno were career AAA pitchers on the fringes of retirement. It will certainly be interesting to see what becomes of the rotation in the second half. 

Liriano is a likely trade candidate, and may garner a nice package as one of the few front-line pitchers available. The Twins will need to go on an absolute tear for the rest of July to justify keeping him, a high-dollar free agent at the end of the year.

Pavano isn’t near ready to return, but could also be a trade candidate if healthy. So far, the nature of his injury is a bit mysterious and it’s unclear if or when he’ll pitch again this year.

Brian Duensing is better suited for the bullpen, under normal circumstances. He was definitely the unsung hero in the ‘pen early this year, which later fell into disarray after Matt Capps was injured. Several close games lost down the stretch may have been won with Duensing in relief instead of Tyler Robertson, Jeff Manship, etc. That said, he’s has had success and even playoff experience as a starter, making him one of the few veteran options on a fringy starting staff.

De Vries is forcing his case with surprising confidence and poise on the mound. He doesn’t have amazing stuff but is a fiery personality lacking in the rotation. Closing out his second half with seven shutout innings against a potent Rangers offense definitely turned some heads, and he’ll get the chance to prove he can start consistently.

Blackburn pitched 8 shutout innings in his first AAA start. The Twins want him back pitching in the big leagues, and will probably give him 3-5 more minor league starts to find himself.

Liam Hendricks has the most potential, but easily rattled in the big leagues. After shuttling back and forth between dominating AAA (1.69 ERA, 53.1 IP) and struggling with the Twins (7.04 ERA, 38.1 IP), it’s unclear how the rest of his year will be handled. Often compared to Scott Baker, he is following a similar path of the fellow pitcher who struggled to initially stick in the big leagues.

Walters and Deduno are like yin and yang. Walters has good control, but meager stuff. Deduno has good stuff, but meager control. But if they are to have a future as professional ball players, this is certainly the best chance they’ll get.

Only Scott Diamond appears in the clear, as his strong pitching all season likely will keep in in the rotation for years to come.

Starting pitching was expected to be a strong suit for the team, but the bullpen proved to be the shining star in the first half. Jared Burton and Jeff Gray emerged as excellent non-roster pickups, while Alex Burnett and Brian Duensing sparkles in their roles as middle relievers.

Before his injury, Matt Capps had returned to form, and may be a possible trade candidate down the stretch. Glen Perkins has been decent as a fill-in closer, but the lefthander makes the team much stronger as a setup man.

Casey Fien and Kyle Waldrop should be good middle relievers, but it’s unclear if their spots are saved once several injured pitchers return to the team. Anthony Swarzak has been sucking in his pride as the long man reliever on a team with a wide open starting rotation, but has saved several games with a knack for stellar 2-3 inning outings. Tyler Robertson has pitched decently as a left-handed specialist, filling in while Perkins closes and Duensing starts.

2012 Twins relievers (active roster):

Injured closer:

M. Capps, R, 1-4, 14 Svs, 3.42 ERA, 26.1 IP, 24 hits, 4 walks, 16 SO, .233

Setup/Closer:

G. Perkins, L, 1-1, 4 Svs, 3.11 ERA, 37.2 IP, 41 hits, 13 walks, 44 SO, .277

J. Burton, R, 1-0, 2 Svs, 2.55 ERA, 35.1 IP, 24 hits, 8 walks, 34 SO, .189 BA

Middle Relief:

Alex Burnett, R, 2-2, 2.49 ERA, 43.1 IP, 32 hits, 15 walks, 19 SO, .217 BA

Jeff Gray, R, 5-0, 3.93 ERA, 36.2 IP, 37 hits, 16 walks, 18 SO, .255 BA

Long Relief:

A. Swarzak, R, 2-4, 4.31 ERA, 62.2 IP, 65 hits, 19 walks, 36 SO, .277 

Additional Relievers:

Kyle Waldrop, R, 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 4 IP, 7 hits, 3 walks, 1 SO, .412 BA

Tyler Robertson, L, 0-0, 7.20 ERA, 5 IP, 7 hits, 1 walk, 7 SO, .350 BA

Casey Fien, R, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 walks, 0 SO, .250 BA

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d.anderson 2012