Every team must adapt during the course of a 162 game season, but the Twins rode a very unexpected ride right out of the shoot in 2012.
Coming into spring training, the starting rotation shaped up like this
(based on 2011 starts):
(based on 2011 starts):
1.) Carl Pavano, R, 9-13, 33 starts, 4.30 ERA, 222 IP, 262 hits, .294 BA
2.) Scott Baker, R, 8-6, 21 starts, 3.14 ERA, 134.2 IP, 126 hits, .248 BA
3.) Francisco Liriano, L, 9-10, 24 starts, 5.09 ERA, 134.1 IP, 125 hits, .249 BA
4.) Nick Blackburn, R, 7-10, 26 starts, 4.49 ERA, 148.1 IP, 183 hits, .305 BA
5.) Jason Marquis, R, 8-6, 23 starts, 4.43 ERA, 132 IP, 154 hits, .294 BA
Those aren’t career numbers, but looks like a rotation that can compete. Instead, all starters opened the season with career worst starts
(2012, first half):
(2012, first half):
1.) Carl Pavano, R, 2-5, 11 starts, 6.00 ERA, 63 IP, 80 hits, .313 BA
2.) Scott Baker, R - Injured Did Not Play
3.) Francisco Liriano, L, 3-7, 14 starts, 5.08 ERA, 83.1 IP, 74 hits, .242 BA
4.) Nick Blackburn, R, 4-5, 13 starts, 8.10 ERA, 63.1 IP, 90 hits, .333 BA
5.) Jason Marquis, R, 2-4, 7 starts, 8.47 ERA, 34 IP, 52 hits, .371 BA
+.) Liam Hendricks, R, 0-5, 8 starts, 7.04 ERA, 38.1 IP, 57 hits, .345 BA
Scott Baker was injured in spring training, missing the year. Jason Marquis was released. Carl Pavano was ineffective and injured. Francisco Liriano spent time in the bullpen. Nick Blackburn was sent to the minor leagues. Even the first-string replacement, Liam Hendricks, has been ineffective and is now in the minor leagues.
Now, as the second half comes to a close, the rotation looks like this:
1.) Francisco Liriano, L, 3-7, 14 starts, 5.08 ERA, 83.1 IP, 74 hits, .242 BA
2.) Scott Diamond, L, 7-3, 12 starts, 2.62 ERA, 79 IP, 81 hits, .266 BA
3.) Brian Duensing, L, 1-5, 3 starts, 4.11 ERA, 46 IP, 44 hits, .253 BA
4.) Cole De Vries, R, 2-1, 5 starts, 3.00 ERA, 30 IP, 25 hits, .225 BA
5.) Samuel Deduno, R, 0-0, 1 start, 5.06 ERA, 5.1 IP, 6 hits, .333 BA
+.) PJ Walters, R, 2-2, 7 starts, 5.40 ERA, 36.2 IP, 42 hits, .300 BA
Of the original 5 starters, only Francisco Liriano remains, although he got off to a terrible start and spent time in the bullpen before a recent surge. No other pitcher in the rotation was expected to start in the big leagues this year, and only Duensing was expected to see time on the 25-man roster.
In truth, the 2012 season has become an rare opportunity for several Twins pitchers who find themselves in the right time and place. Diamond and De Vries were considered marginal prospects at best, while Walters and Deduno were career AAA pitchers on the fringes of retirement. It will certainly be interesting to see what becomes of the rotation in the second half.
Liriano is a likely trade candidate, and may garner a nice package as one of the few front-line pitchers available. The Twins will need to go on an absolute tear for the rest of July to justify keeping him, a high-dollar free agent at the end of the year.
Pavano isn’t near ready to return, but could also be a trade candidate if healthy. So far, the nature of his injury is a bit mysterious and it’s unclear if or when he’ll pitch again this year.
Brian Duensing is better suited for the bullpen, under normal circumstances. He was definitely the unsung hero in the ‘pen early this year, which later fell into disarray after Matt Capps was injured. Several close games lost down the stretch may have been won with Duensing in relief instead of Tyler Robertson, Jeff Manship, etc. That said, he’s has had success and even playoff experience as a starter, making him one of the few veteran options on a fringy starting staff.
De Vries is forcing his case with surprising confidence and poise on the mound. He doesn’t have amazing stuff but is a fiery personality lacking in the rotation. Closing out his second half with seven shutout innings against a potent Rangers offense definitely turned some heads, and he’ll get the chance to prove he can start consistently.
Blackburn pitched 8 shutout innings in his first AAA start. The Twins want him back pitching in the big leagues, and will probably give him 3-5 more minor league starts to find himself.
Liam Hendricks has the most potential, but easily rattled in the big leagues. After shuttling back and forth between dominating AAA (1.69 ERA, 53.1 IP) and struggling with the Twins (7.04 ERA, 38.1 IP), it’s unclear how the rest of his year will be handled. Often compared to Scott Baker, he is following a similar path of the fellow pitcher who struggled to initially stick in the big leagues.
Walters and Deduno are like yin and yang. Walters has good control, but meager stuff. Deduno has good stuff, but meager control. But if they are to have a future as professional ball players, this is certainly the best chance they’ll get.
Only Scott Diamond appears in the clear, as his strong pitching all season likely will keep in in the rotation for years to come.
Starting pitching was expected to be a strong suit for the team, but the bullpen proved to be the shining star in the first half. Jared Burton and Jeff Gray emerged as excellent non-roster pickups, while Alex Burnett and Brian Duensing sparkles in their roles as middle relievers.
Before his injury, Matt Capps had returned to form, and may be a possible trade candidate down the stretch. Glen Perkins has been decent as a fill-in closer, but the lefthander makes the team much stronger as a setup man.
Casey Fien and Kyle Waldrop should be good middle relievers, but it’s unclear if their spots are saved once several injured pitchers return to the team. Anthony Swarzak has been sucking in his pride as the long man reliever on a team with a wide open starting rotation, but has saved several games with a knack for stellar 2-3 inning outings. Tyler Robertson has pitched decently as a left-handed specialist, filling in while Perkins closes and Duensing starts.
2012 Twins relievers (active roster):
Injured closer:
M. Capps, R, 1-4, 14 Svs, 3.42 ERA, 26.1 IP, 24 hits, 4 walks, 16 SO, .233
Setup/Closer:
G. Perkins, L, 1-1, 4 Svs, 3.11 ERA, 37.2 IP, 41 hits, 13 walks, 44 SO, .277
J. Burton, R, 1-0, 2 Svs, 2.55 ERA, 35.1 IP, 24 hits, 8 walks, 34 SO, .189 BA
Middle Relief:
Alex Burnett, R, 2-2, 2.49 ERA, 43.1 IP, 32 hits, 15 walks, 19 SO, .217 BA
Jeff Gray, R, 5-0, 3.93 ERA, 36.2 IP, 37 hits, 16 walks, 18 SO, .255 BA
Long Relief:
A. Swarzak, R, 2-4, 4.31 ERA, 62.2 IP, 65 hits, 19 walks, 36 SO, .277
Additional Relievers:
Kyle Waldrop, R, 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 4 IP, 7 hits, 3 walks, 1 SO, .412 BA
Tyler Robertson, L, 0-0, 7.20 ERA, 5 IP, 7 hits, 1 walk, 7 SO, .350 BA
Casey Fien, R, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 hit, 0 walks, 0 SO, .250 BA
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d.anderson 2012
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