2012 Season Preview

2011 in review:

Certainly the 2011 Twins season fell far short of expectations, only buoyed below triple digit loses by a gritty, shutout performance by no-nonsense ace, Carl Pavano, on the last day of the season But, if you have to lose in baseball, might as well lose big. With renowned talent-evaluator, General Manager Terry Ryan, now back on board for a second stint as GM in 2012, there is hope to replenish the once-heralded minor league system through several top picks in the upcoming draft.

Terry Ryan, by own admission, has always been on the conservative end by baseball standards, but has made a number of unassumingly shrewd moves to propel the Twins back toward respectability, both in short and long term. The Twins lost versatile clubhouse leader, Michael Cuddyer, but will receive additional draft picks as compensation. To fill the void, they signed power-hitting outfielder, Josh Willingham, at a much more frugal rate, while replacing Cuddyer’s versatility with underrated Ryan Doumit, who can fill in at first base, catcher and outfield with a capable bat.

Jason Kubel will be missed, but became expendable in a heavily lefthanded hitting line-up. Let’s hope he, or perhaps more predictably, traded outfielder Delmon Young, doesn’t join JJ Hardy as a new member of the David Ortiz club and find a power stroke after leaving the team. Both Hardy and Young were dealt in dismal desperation deals under former GM Bill Smith.

The pitching staff lost relievers Joe Nathan and Jose Mijares, but hope that a seemingly healthy starting rotation, with the addition of innings-eater, Jason Marquis, will allow Anthony Swarzak and Brian Duensing to move to the bullpen full-time. Out of a slew of scrap-head reliever pickups, the Twins will expect at least two no-name righthanders to provide decent relief in front of Glen Perkins and required closer, Matt Capps.

As has been the case in recent memory, the Twins will once again revamp what was a historically poor infield in 2011. Tsuyoshi Nishioka never got comfortable playing American baseball, essentially costing the job of former GM Bill Smith. He may head to AAA ball to start the season, but could wind up in a starting role later on if he can progress. Grizzled veteran, Jeremy Carroll, was brought in to provide stability at shortstop, although his aging range could find him at second base. He is a consistent professional, very much in the Twins mold, and won’t hurt the team with his glove or bat. Alexi Casilla and Danny Valencia are both exciting young players that have hopefully passed some growing pains and are ready to produce consistently. While players like Carroll hold their own against anyone, the Twins need players like Valencia and Casilla to push ahead of the pack if they are to improve in 2011.

Keys to success:

With Caddyer and Kubel gone, the Twins will not be able to compete without healthy rebounds by Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Dernard Span, and without season-ending injuries by anyone in the rotation. By Twins standards, that seems to be a tall order, but if that happens they have a legitimate shot at winning another surprising division title.

While a newfound ability to play first base makes Mauer a candidate to stay healthy, Morneau’s offseason of surgeries would make Frankenstein blush. It may be wise for him to spend a good share of time at DH, as even a minor collision could bring back concussion-like symptoms. Likewise, Dernard Span may be moved from center to the less-taxing right field, allowing a younger/faster Ben Revere to move to center and Josh Willingham to his natural left field.

Although often overlooked, the starting rotation provides a solid five that can compete over the long course of a season. If healthy, this should be a strong point. The Twins need Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker to be consistent, healthy all year and able to confidently face off against any ace in the league. Jason Marquis and Nick Blackburn, meanwhile, need to hit the seventh inning virtually every time out with 200+ innings to save a possibly spotty bullpen.

Players to watch:

The most exciting young player in camp is Trevor Plouffe, a former 1st round draft pick with legitimate power potential. A move to the outfield allows him to bulk up and focus on his hitting after a difficult defensive year at shortstop. If all goes well, he’ll force the Twins to put slow-footed Josh Willingham at DH, while taking an everyday role at left or right field. Expect 15-25 home runs if he can hold it down, with decent average and athleticism in the outfield.

Obviously, all eyes are on Justin Morneau, as well as a substantial amount of payroll. It’s probably unrealistic to expect a return to MVP numbers, but if he can stay in the lineup and match, say, Michael Cuddyer status, the team would be in good shape. .275 average with 20 home runs and 80 RBI would be nothing to scoff at. If he can’t play first base or lands on the DL, Chris Parmelee, likely successor, will have a chance to see if his late-season surge in 2011 was a fluke. His bat could land him a bench role, although the Twins would likely prefer more seasoning in AAA.

The rotation is laced with underachievers, ace-like form from Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano has been on the “watch” list for years.. perhaps now is the time? Also closer Matt Capps has a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. It’s reasonable to assume last year was a fluke, and now with a healthy arm and without Joe Nathan to add pressure to perform, he may be poised for a 3.00 ERA, 40 save season if the team can give him the ball consistently.

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d.anderson 2012